Does Biden’s presidential win make the ACA (#Obamacare) more likely to survive tomorrow’s Supreme Court case?

Only marginally, and it would all come down to Georgia.

Here's why: (1/7)
2/ The Trump Admin is arguing in court that the ACA should be struck down. A Biden Admin would change positions to defend the law.

But the Trump admin’s exit has no effect on the plaintiffs in the case – 18 Republican-led states + two individuals – who aren’t backing out
3/ There’s nothing administrative that Biden can do unilaterally as president to reverse the course of the ACA case. Biden can’t simply issue an executive order and make it go away. This case is now up to the largely conservative SCOTUS to decide.
4/ No one knows how SCOTUS will rule, but a Democratic Congress could moot the case by passing a legislative “fix,” which President Biden could sign into law. That "fix" would be to 1) set a small mandate penalty, 2) add severability language, or 3) kill the mandate altogether.
5/ But passing one of those fixes would require a Dem majority in the House and Senate. So far, Dems hold the House, but the Senate is split 48-48 with 4 seats left. If Dems win at least 2 of the 4 seats, they'll have 50 votes, with Kamala Harris as VP to be a tie-breaker.
6/ Given Senate results so far, it’s looking like those 2 Dem seats would need to come from Georgia’s two run-off elections (and they will be tight). A few thousand votes in GA could end up deciding the fate of ACA and health insurance coverage for millions.
7/ If SCOTUS rules against the ACA, with no replacement plan in place and no legislative "fix" to moot the case, what happens next would be up to a Dem-controlled House and R-controlled Senate to figure out. Meanwhile, the health system would be thrown into chaos mid-pandemic.

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More from @cynthiaccox

10 Nov
At her confirmation, #AmyConeyBarrett said the #ACA SCOTUS case is about severability.

That assumes the individual mandate is unconstitutional, and the question before the court is: 𝘾𝙖𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘼𝘾𝘼 𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙙?

The data shows it can... 1/9
2/ The individual mandate 𝗵𝗮𝗱 been seen as essential to the ACA’s individual market. The thought 𝗵𝗮𝗱 been, if people with #PreexistingConditons can get coverage, people would wait 'til they got sick to get insurance. This would drive up premiums and lead to a "death spiral"
3/ As anyone who has read the ACA knows, it’s a big piece of legislation. There’s a lot that has nothing to do with the individual mandate. Like calorie labeling, biosimilar approval, closing the Medicare donut hole. There was never a risk of a death spiral in Medicaid expansion.
Read 9 tweets
11 Dec 18
NEW analysis: Rather than continuing to go without insurance, *4.2 million* uninsured people could get an #ACA bronze plan for FREE

We estimate 27% of uninsured potential Marketplace shoppers are eligible for a bronze plan with $0 premiums in 2019. kff.org/health-reform/…
In #Delaware, #Iowa, #Nebraska, and #Utah, almost 1 in 2 currently uninsured people who could be buying Marketplace coverage will be able to get a $0 bronze plan in 2019.

But, will they even know this is an option?
Bronze plans have high deductibles & many ppl are better off w/ Silver

But the math is simple: $0 bronze >> uninsured

Bronze plans have $0 preventive services, often a few Dr visits pre-deductible, & make it more likely to get non-emergency care even if you can't pay deductible
Read 5 tweets
6 Dec 18
[THREAD] The U.S. spends more $$$ than any other country on health care, but gets worse health outcomes than similar countries.

We live shorter lives and have more disease burden. And the gap between the U.S. and other countries has grown.
Along with Jeffrey Selberg @PetersonCHealth, my @KaiserFamFound colleagues and I took a deep dive into the health system. We examined the last 25 years of health spending and outcomes in the U.S. vs similar countries. We look at dozens of indicators from a variety of data sources
U.S. health outcomes have improved, generally, over the past generation. In the past 25 years, life expectancy in the U.S. improved 4% and disease burden improved 12% (though both recently worsened a bit). Meanwhile, the share of our economy devoted to health increased by 40%
Read 9 tweets
13 Aug 18
NEW Analysis: Among people with employer coverage, nearly 1 in 5 inpatient admissions includes a claim from an out-of-network provider, putting them at risk for potentially high out-of-pocket costs. healthsystemtracker.org/brief/an-analy… @PetersonCHealth
Even when enrollees choose in-network facilities, a meaningful share of inpatient admissions result in the patient receiving a claim from an out-of-network provider.
Emergency care is much more likely to include a claim from an out-of-network provider. This is true whether or not enrollees use in-network facilities.
Read 6 tweets

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