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10 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
they're setting the stage for years of new restrictive laws in states they run, justified under the false pretense of fraud, & bolstered by an even friendlier SCOTUS.
This is what happened after 2016, when Trump made stuff up with specific relentlessness about his loss in New Hampshire, paving the way for the GOP state government to change voting rules: wbur.org/news/2019/11/0…
It's also the relentless playbook. Kansas adopted a law that put the registrations of 30,000 Kansas in limbo.

Forced to justify the law in court, Kobach managed to point to allegations that covered 11 ineligible voters since 2000. Used to keep tens of thousands away.
And I guess this is the best case scenario of what's next?

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
7 Nov
scenes near the White House
16th street again, this time looking away from the White House
Two points: looking around, I can see hundreds of people, and I don’t see anyone who doesn’t have a mask. And massively zoomed in pictures make distancing seem absent, but groups are quite a bit apart.
Read 6 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
7 Nov
Maricopa County just reported 69K ballots (that's roughly what it reports in every batch).

They went for Trump by 10%.

Smaller than the batches counted on Thursday (though a bit larger than this morning), & still smaller than estimates of what he'd need.
Crudest possible math. @Garrett_Archer estimated there were 244K ballots left in AZ before this. Let's use that.

Before this batch, Trump needed to win what was left in all of Arizona by 15.1%.

He only won this (very large) batch by 10%. So now needs what's left by 17.2%.
One caveat I'd have: The SoS's assessments of what's left (which is what @Garrett_Archer is using) have grown a few times. That's lowered (a bit) the threshold of what Trump needs. There'd need to be many more ballots, or Trump needs to do much better, or a mix of the two.
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
6 Nov
🚨 Los Angeles DA Jackie Lacey just conceded to progressive challenger George Gascón.

Gascón, who was SF DA, ran on reducing incarceration & bringing the national reform movement to this county of 10 million.

And major activist energy around the office. theappeal.org/george-gascon-…
I interviewed Gascon in January about his policy views in a Q&A.

He made his case for why some behaviors should not be criminally prosecuted, for avoiding very lengthy sentences, for not using gang enhancements, and more.

theappeal.org/politicalrepor…
Gascon told me then: "The problem is that LA County has come to a place where they use the most expensive and the most intrusive tools of the criminal justice system to deal with every behavior, & that is prosecution & incarceration."

He stressed LA incarceration 4 times SF's.
Read 6 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
6 Nov
Joe Biden is now ahead in Georgia!

Latest batch of ballots from Clayton County has given him the statewide lead. More remains from Clayton, part of which John Lewis represented in Congress until July.

No Democrat has won GA in a presidential race since 1992.
Biden's lead sits at 917 votes.

Clayton reported 1,800 ballots, which the AP/NYT does not yet include. (Clayton's count is here: results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Clayton/105…)

Roughly 700 remain in Clayon. Many more from blue Gwinnett. Also some from Laurens, Forsyth, Cobb, Floyd.
So, where were you?
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
5 Nov
What we know, 11:30pm 11/4:

Biden needs 17 EVs out of NV, AZ, GA, PA, (NC).

—NV: up 6K: more tmrw.
—AZ: up 80K. Trump probably needs more than he got today in Maricopa to offset Pima/Cococino.
—GA: down 32K. ≈87K mail left. Shld be tight.
—PA: down 170K. A lot of mail left.
What we know, 3:00am EST 11/5.

Biden needs 17 EVs out of NV, AZ, GA, PA, (NC)

—NV: up 6K: more tmrw.
—AZ: up 68K. To offset Pima/Cococino, Trump will need more than he got today in Maricopa.
—GA: down 22K. 10s of 1000s mail left. Tight.
—PA: down 164K. 100s of 1000s mail left.
What we know, 10:30am EST 11/5.

Biden needs 17 EVs out of NV, AZ, GA, PA, (NC)

—NV: up 6K: more today.
—AZ: up 68K. 100s of 1000s of ballots left.
—GA: down 18K. 61K mail left. Tight, doable.
—PA: down 136K. 100s of 1000s mail left.

(And Perdue close to dipping below 50%.)
Read 10 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
4 Nov
David Perdue is down to 50.47%.

And Trump's lead in Georgia now sits at 67K votes.
David Perdue is down to 50.38%.

And Trump's lead in Georgia now sits at 57K votes.
David Perdue is down to 50.29%.

And Trump's lead in Georgia now sits at 47K votes (< 1%).
Read 6 tweets

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