Charlie Munger: “There are all kinds of wonderful new inventions that give you nothing as owners except the opportunity to spend a lot more money in a business that’s still going to be lousy." "Nothing sticks to the ribs of owners."

Is there a barrier to entry for fake meat?
Memphis Meats, MosaMeat, SuperMeat, Integriculture, Aleph Farms, Finless Food., Avant Meats, Balletic Foods, Future Meat, Appleton Meats Higher Steaks, Beyond Meat, LightLife Maple Leaf Foods, Field Roast, Impossible Foods, Kellogg’s Morningstar Farms, Turtle Island Foods...
"Eight brokerages cut their price targets" *after* the stock went down.

"Beyond Meat said it co-created the patty in McPlant, but could not provide any further details, leaving analysts puzzled as to how much Beyond Meat could earn from the tie up." reuters.com/article/busine…
Munger: "Many markets get down to two or three big competitors—or five or six. In some of those markets, nobody makes any money to speak of. But in others, everybody does very well."

"If I decided I had to have 60% of the market, I'd ruin Kellogg..." theinvestmentsblog.blogspot.com/2014/09/munger…
Few businesses know the importance of "wholesale transfer pricing power" better than MCD:

“delicious plant-based burger crafted for McDonald’s, by McDonald’s, and with the kind of craveable McDonald’s flavor our customers love.” corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/en-us/…

cnbc.com/2020/11/09/mcd…
"And I say, 'Hey, Ronald McDonald , hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know.' He says, 'Oh, uh, there won’t be any money, but when you go through the drive through you will receive total consciousness.' So I got that goin’ for me, which is nice."

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More from @trengriffin

9 Nov
On Covid, please remember:

“A margin of safety is available for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck."

“A lesson inherent in any probabilistic exercise: the frequency of correctness doesn't matter; it's magnitude of correctness that matters.” MM
How should you act to reduce Covid transmission risks if you know or even suspect that there are no reliable models to rely on?

You have only one life.

“There is no way that one can sensibly assign probabilities to the unknown states of the world." 25iq.com/2018/09/08/ris…
“Avoid things like racing trains to the crossing... A lot of success in life and business comes from knowing what you want to avoid. What will automatically do the worst damage and how do I avoid it? Figure out what you don’t want and avoid it and you’ll get what you do want." CM
Read 5 tweets
8 Nov
1/ 1994 was a pivotal year in technology. I had a ringside seat since Bill Gates and Craig McCaw were controlling shareholders in our startup. Part of that year I helped Bill write his book "The Road Ahead." Nathan Myhrvold was a co-author. Writing is an opportunity to think.
2/ One set up: In December 1992, John Malone announced TCI placed orders for 1M million digital set-tops. A story in the NYT predicted 500 channels of programming were on the horizon. In January 1993, Time Warner unveiled plans for a “full service network” to be built in Orlando.
3/ John Malone: ‘The arithmetic is pretty easy – if cable systems have got 50 analog channels, and you can do 10 to 1 compression, that wasn't a huge leap of mathematics to get you to 500 channels.” cablecenter.org/programs/the-h…
Read 16 tweets
8 Nov
This BBC article isn't even wrong:

"China sends 'world's first 6G' test satellite into orbit"

1. 6G doesn't exist yet as a standard.

2. Running an experiment on a satellite using terahertz frequency is just that.

3. Gell-Mann Amnesia effect.

bbc.com/news/av/world-….
6G will not be just a radio frequency as is the case with 5G. People tend to want a single number to represent something so with a G they focus on achievable speed. In the real world, using less electricity and better utilizing low and mid band spectrum should be core to 6G
The focus of 5G and 6G should be on creating more value. Faster downloads using ever higher frequencies, especially if they are available almost never, are not the core problem to be solved in wireless (eg, operators using less electricity is new value). sdxcentral.com/articles/opini…
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
Berkshire bought back $9 billion of its own stock it revealed Saturday in its third-quarter earnings report. That brings Berkshire’s total buybacks to $15.7 billion for 2020. cnbc.com/2020/11/07/ber…
"If you buy stock for less than it's worth, it's advantageous to continuing shareholders. If you're repurchasing shares above a rationally calculated intrinsic value, you harm shareholders." WB

"We'll be a little more liberal in repurchasing shares." CM

cnbc.com/video/2019/02/…
Berkshire's board gave authority to Buffett and Munger to repurchase stock “at any time” if they agree that its price is below the stock’s “intrinsic value, conservatively determined.”

"What is smart at one price is stupid at another'." Warren Buffett
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
1/ David Chang: "If restaurants can’t get back to 100% occupancy, most restaurants are going to go out of business. ... If you were prepared in takeaway delivery beforehand, and had the marketing and the packaging... Sushi, high-end Italian and pizza, and certain fast foods..."
2/ "Wholesale transfer pricing power":

David Chang: "The restaurant model was making more money for everyone else except restaurateurs — whether you’re a credit-card processor, or Google, or Yelp, or a reservation system, or a purveyor of beef, or a lawyer, or an accountant."
3/ "We had a plan five years ago to focus on consumer packed goods. The goal was that 50% of Momofuku’s revenue had to come from outside the four walls of the restaurant."

Value chain analysis is the right starting point. Where are the profit pools? msn.com/en-us/money/ne…
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
1/ "Distributors like Comcast and Charter no longer care that much whether or not a customer buys traditional pay-TV. The price of a video bundle has gotten so high, there's little margin for them -- especially compared to broadband internet service." news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
2/ In world where password sharing is rampant, the bigger the cross-selling revenue, the more likely the streaming service is a survivor.

"While stealing cable TV is difficult, it’s easier to share a password for a streaming service, and it’s more common among younger viewers."
3/ The value of a bundle breaks if the buyer can purchase an alternative service outside the bundle. Entertainment services that are are more substitutable (i.e., a commodity) weaken the value of a bundle. Movies are more of a commodity than sports, so the latter is stickier.
Read 4 tweets

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