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FishingInfo

10 Nov, 8 tweets, 2 min read

Found another file on VA website. This one is a "Change Control" log for votes in the system. I've only begun to explore this, but there's some interesting activity for VA-7 for Spanberger. On Oct 30th, a preload change was initiated that would expire at 11/4 @ 4:13AM

At 4:13AM, 66,498 votes are assigned to her with an expiration of 11/5 @ 11:26 AM. When this comes around, the total is adjusted to 63,687. Reason given is "Tabulation Error in Precinct". The last change has no expiration date. These changes affected Chesterfield County.

This lines up with the raw vote total for Spanberger in Chesterfield County. There's also a change records to assign Rashid (VA-1) in Stafford county. See both pics attached :

What the Rashid change log shows is that the 200K unexplainable votes in the raw data were a temporary mistake made by central office. This mistake lasted during the time the raw data dump was produced, and corrected shortly afterwards. So my theory based on it looks wrong.

We'll need to see the next raw data dump (scheduled for Friday I believe) to confirm what I'm seeing in the change log. But this change log is an interesting step-by-step of changes that occurred since the election. For anyone wanting to take a peek, lots of top ticket activity

for Prez and Senate across CD-1, CD-10, and CD-11. Which does still line up with the rest of my theory (Rashid part of it should be discounted with this new info).

Correction: "that would expire" should have been "did expire". It looks like a new entry timestamp will be applied to the previous record which is why the Expiration of the previous record matches the entry of the next.

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@FishingForInfo

12 Nov

1. Change Log Update : Batch Analysis. As far as I know, there isn't a data source available of how batches of ballots voted. We see the batches in the Edison data feed, and can see their impact on the Dem / Rep %s. But that's for the President. What about down ballot? Let's see!

@va_shiva

2. Seeing how Dem & Rep candidates performed down ballot compared to the Prez is a powerful insight that can tell us how more about what these batches contain. @va_shiva had a presentation about weighted race voting, and while I'm not familiar, the pattern I'm seeing might

3. be what his analysis showed in MI. Now these batches are in VA. I've focused on CD-1, CD-10, and CD-11. The other criteria was that the batch of votes had to be >1000 for both Biden and Trump. The big batches are more meaningful in terms of trends.

Read 10 tweets

FishingInfo

@FishingForInfo

11 Nov

1. Change Log Update : I've spent some time going through the data to get a better understanding of the relationships between the rows, and how to identify batches of votes that were loaded into the system. I focused on the largest batches in CD-1, CD-10, and CD-11.

2. I was particularly focused on batches that had both Dem and Rep candidates for Prez, Senate, and House. The purpose was to compare the votes across the ballots. Expecting to see Prez with the largest numbers, and the Senate / House being lower numbers.

3. Well, this is true for the Dem candidates, but not for Rep candidates. I haven't manually checked all the batches, but this tends to hold true for smaller batches (less than 50K). Here is an example of what I mean for this unusual trend in the votes of these batches.

Read 14 tweets

FishingInfo

@FishingForInfo

9 Nov

@WontMarch4Soros

@WontMarch4Soros @bedivere_knight @ColdPotatoSpud After thinking about the data / analyses I've been doing on the raw data vs website and other reports, I believe I have an explanation for why Rashid has so many more votes than Wittman. This will be a long explanation :

1. This explanation may bounce around a bit, but touches on different aspects of the pics I've posted across different threads. Ask questions if things don't seem to follow, since they are related.
If we think about how elections work, different precincts will have diff ballots

2. The ballots are different because downstream the (house reps) are different in the various districts. There are only two races that will be on every ballot across every district precinct. Senate and President. This is important.

Read 24 tweets

FishingInfo

@FishingForInfo

9 Nov

@ColdPotatoSpud

@ColdPotatoSpud @bedivere_knight @Peoples_Pundit 4) The other odd thing in the turnout file is that Stafford County has a huge amount of absentee ballots that were cast "In Person", which you don't see in many of the other counties. Here's the details :

@ColdPotatoSpud

@ColdPotatoSpud @bedivere_knight @Peoples_Pundit The absentee ballots reported in the turnout file is bizzare (high), but is nothing close to what the raw data say are the absentee ballots associated with Rashid in Stafford County. See the details :

@ColdPotatoSpud

@ColdPotatoSpud @bedivere_knight @Peoples_Pundit Those pics show a large number of votes associated with Rashid in the raw data, but in the turnout file, there is a much smaller number of ballots. Since each vote for Rashid must equal 1 ballot. So we should see a minimum of 200K ballots in the Turnout file, but again it doesn't

Read 4 tweets

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