No death is ever good news, but the relatively low number (996) excess deaths in England & Wales over the most recent week suggests the number of deaths linked to coronavirus since the pandemic began is around
72,300
1/
There is now no doubt that the second wave is very different to the first.
In England & Wales, excess deaths have been in Covid hotspots so clearly linked, but have been running lower than the govt's deaths within 28 days of a test.
In the spring they were double
2/
The deaths in the most recent week of ONS data were people infected around the start of October, so there are unfortunately likely to be further increases to come in the weeks ahead..
There has clearly been some improvement in coronavirus treatment, but, to me, the really big difference in the second wave is that we know who's infected and symptomatic.
We had no idea in the first wave.
That is a huge improvement
ENDS
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Case numbers are high across the UK and again much higher when people are tested randomly than when they go for tests, but it's still nothing like the case estimates of the spring
2/
Borrowing from economics, where we also have to be careful about measurement error and out-of-date data, hospitalisations and deaths are not following the patterns of the spring.
So far, excess deaths this time are in line with recorded daily deaths, for example
.... and why this is bad news for the measured productivity of lawyers and management consultants
but good news for telecoms companies
1/
The ONS today published its first estimates of UK GDP volumne based on double deflation (ie you measure the volume of inputs for each industry and outputs)
Doesn't make much difference to overall GDP trends, but it does to industry controibutions
But the big change - which has been flagged for over 2 years is that the ONS has been underestimating the output of the telecoms industry significantly because it did not recognise how much output prices have fallen
Update: Sadly, UK excess deaths are rising again after a summer of stability. Since mid-March, a cautious estimate of the number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus has risen to
67,500
There is both bad and good news in this figure
1/
The bad news first:
- The numbers are rising again. Office for National Statistics reported 669 excess deaths in England and Wales in the week to 16 Oct - 6.8% above the five year average
- There was not much of a decline in excess deaths over the summer. Almost zero
2/
That is pretty strong evidence that the deaths in the spring were not simply of people who had weeks or months to live
- The excess deaths in mid-October reflect infections towards the end of September, which have roughly trippled since,
3/
@GeorgeWParker@AndyBounds Excellent charts from @jburnmurdoch showing how the UK's positive test rate has jumped ahead of the US and is now close to Spain and France's levels
NEWS YOU CAN USE
These are the new limits of sin goods you'll be able to bring in from Calais after Jan...
(ensuring cars carry more passengers than before)
Don't exceed the limits or you'll pay excise and VAT on everything
1/
Unless - of course you go via the Republic of Ireland.
Then you can do what you like.
I am not sure whether this would be breaking the law in a limited and specific way...