+UPDATE+

Biden transition team provides read-outs of the 4 countries Joe Biden has calls with post election confirmation.

While these are traditionally kept as bland subjects rather than details - it’s worth noting importance Biden team attaches to N. Ireland & GFA agreement.
2/

Strangely though..

...This is the one subject that the UK govt omitted from its read-out of the call with Joe Biden published on UK govt website.

gov.uk/government/new…
3/

In political-diplomatic terms it’s likely of no importance.

But I’m sure it won’t have escaped the
Americans’ notice that the UK govt chose to misrepresent the very first interaction with the new president.
4/

2 things to take from the call.

1. Biden warned Johnson that GFA & peace principles in N Ireland must be adhered to

2. Johnson assured Biden this would be the case

Quite how this is squared with IMB is unclear.

But Biden has already put Johnson on notice.
5/

99% of the time congratulatory calls to new president are bland “summary’ type calls of cooperative intent.

But if the above report in FT is correct then Joe Biden has just put Boris Johnson on notice that he has just 20 days to sort out a solution for Northern Ireland.

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More from @nicktolhurst

11 Nov
PREDICTION

UK will drop all barriers to european immigration to UK next year.

You think this sounds crazy, right?
Well here’s why...
2/

It’s always worth looking at things which “pass under the radar” - especially when big events are happening elsewhere.

So what’s happened is this:
Over the course of the year the UK govt believes 800 000 mostly foreign born people have left UK.

Think about that figure....
3/

It suits govt to believe this is due entirely to COVID but this seems implausible.
But even if true it doesn’t make much difference.

This is in fact at a level that is equivalent to an historical episode of war depopulation.

It’s huge.
But we haven’t noticed cause of COVID.
Read 10 tweets
11 Nov
+US UPDATE+

The leading 4 civilian appointed members of the US Defence establishment was fired by Donald Trump over the last 48 hours.
2/

There include (but are not limited to):

The Defence Secretary
The top Pentagon Policy official
The Defence Intelligence Chief
The Defence Secretary’s Chief of Staff

This does seem rather excessive.
3/

There seems to be some reports of aides/supporters of Michael Flynn being brought into the intelligence/defence establishment by Trump this week.

Looking for confirmation.
Read 7 tweets
10 Nov
+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson’s congratulatory message to Joe Biden..

...still contained Donald Trump’s name from an earlier message they’d prepared assuming Trump had won.
2/

The image was hastily edited which is why it is rather stilted syntax but Johnson’s team also forgot to take out the original edit.
3/

Quite a few people saw this simply by lightening the colour tone.

Which is why you’re seeing this go round twitter right now with different colours.

Johnson’s Office obviously thought by toning it black they’d be fine.
Read 5 tweets
9 Nov
I’m so tired of this revisionism.

I campaigned for soft Brexit when it was clear we we were leaving.

The effort dissolved when it became clear Conservatives & media would never accept it. Even if May could force something thru - which she didn’t.

Now apparently its our fault.
2/

Its as if @prospect_clark has completely forgotten the endless "There's no thing as soft Brexit" debates, articles, speeches.

I like Tom - but when people come out with ths guff I truly start to wonder if they've actually been present in UK the last 4 years.
3/

Indeed for a large chunk of the period 2016-19 (& the reason I gave up on soft Brexit) was much Conservative party/media were actually more hostile to soft Brexit than many of them were to 2nd referendum.

Soft Brexit was constantly denigrated as the worst of both worlds.
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
+UPDATE+

CNN calls election for Joe Biden.

Over.
2/

Other networks are expected to follow suit within minutes.

Over.
3/

In official terms this means Biden now referred to as President-elect.

Election officially over.
Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
+US UPDATE+

Donald Trump will now spend election night not - as convention dictates - at an independent party...but at the White House.

Speculation is that Trump believes - in the case of a narrow defeat - it will be harder for him to be forcibly removed from White House.
2/

This is important as convention dictates that the outgoing president has already graciously conceded relatively soon after election..even if he remains at WH during the transition.

Clear that Trump may have another strategy.
3/

That’s why presidents always spend election night away from White House - it’s a party event - not a head of state or presidential one.

But if the president announces from the White House that he’s been re-elected it becomes at “act of state” to remove him.
Read 4 tweets

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