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7 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
+UPDATE+

CNN calls election for Joe Biden.

Over.
2/
Other networks are expected to follow suit within minutes.

Over.
3/
In official terms this means Biden now referred to as President-elect.

Election officially over.
4/
NBC & other broadcasters now follow & confirm this.

Over.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
1 Nov
+US UPDATE+

Donald Trump will now spend election night not - as convention dictates - at an independent party...but at the White House.

Speculation is that Trump believes - in the case of a narrow defeat - it will be harder for him to be forcibly removed from White House.
2/
This is important as convention dictates that the outgoing president has already graciously conceded relatively soon after election..even if he remains at WH during the transition.

Clear that Trump may have another strategy.
3/
That’s why presidents always spend election night away from White House - it’s a party event - not a head of state or presidential one.

But if the president announces from the White House that he’s been re-elected it becomes at “act of state” to remove him.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
22 Oct
Johnson’s Biden calculation is more complex than many make out.

Given the polls, UK govt has to conclude a Biden presidency most probable outcome. So why wait for it to restart Brexit talks?

It’s this:
It doesn’t affect the substance of Brexit so much as the mood of UK leavers.
2/
The moment it’s clear Biden has won - the whole psychological context of Brexit changes - whatever your views on actual substance of Brexit.

Without the idea of Trump as facilitator of a US deal or of UK riding a global populist wave - brexit becomes just a problem to solve.
3/
I think Johnson is smart enough to get this.

If you’re going to have to compromise - do it when your supporters are dejected Trump has gone..not while they still believe he could win.

That way it wasn’t your fault.

That’s another reason to be more optimistic for a deal.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
20 Oct
I'll let you into a secret..

Virtually all MPs - whether Tory or Labour - despise Brexit.
Even many of those well known as Brexiters hate it.

The whole thing is performance.
But they all know honesty about the greatest f*ck-up in post-war history is pointless...at this stage.
So here's how it'll go:

We've left EU, so they all have to pretend we're going to make a success of it.
But actually all parties will spend next 2 decades getting back to Single Market status without saying it.

Then we'll rejoin.
& have to join Euro.

Its all been for nothing.
3/
Nobody can say this publicly otherwise entire UK political system looks ridiculous.
People will feel stupid.

Brexit itself will have likely cost UK economy £500 Bn by 2030.

How can you explain this to people?

You can't.
How could you?

Its the cost of 10 million degrees.
Read 9 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
18 Oct
+UPDATE+

"'UK Civil servant' arrested on suspicion of breaching Official Secrets Act 'over Kim Darroch leaked memo' .
2/
The male suspect was taken to a London police station and later released on police bail to for a reappearance date in late-November.
3/
The Standard

standard.co.uk/news/crime/civ…
Read 5 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
14 Oct
OK this is how I think Brexit endgame really playing out right now.

Some of the following is based on reported public facts, some on chatter and some merely personal speculation.

A (small) thread
2/
Boris Johnson is desperate.
He knows his disastrous Covid policies + global recession + no deal would finish UK off.
But he also knows to backtrack now finishes him off, makes UK look ridiculous & ends Conservative/UK reputation for decades.

He can do neither.

So what next?
3/
Johnson plays the only card he has left - “the stability gambit”.

He appeals to Merkel desire for european stability, green new deal & security. The 2 options above both risk UK imploding - but if Merkel could help choreograph a “fake victory” for UK he can sell to UKvoters.
Read 12 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
13 Oct
England 2030

Supreme Leader Laurence Fox refuses to accept Scottish independence vote as he ‘reluctantly’ agrees to parliament‘s decision to delay the general election as a mark of respect for “victory over the Europeans” in WWII.

1/
2/
Finance Minister (with special Responsibility for the fashion industry) Sir Darren Grimes introduces a tax on people who finished their degrees as he announces major clampdown on “metropolitans” as part of tax raising measures to subsidise new UK-produced “Farage” car model.
3/
Incoming BBC Chairman Julia Hartley-Brewer celebrates her promotion from OfCom office by commissioning new 24-part drama series: “Brexit: how we won the war”.

The series is entirely UK financed as global take-up slow - but costs kept low as students requisitioned for roles.
Read 5 tweets

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