good morning to @EBRD who illustrates their 'neutral' position in the 'Empire strikes back vs 'The Return of the Jedi' takes on state with, literally, a 'Nanny State'
seriously, this is the least effort ever put into pretending you're not in the neoliberal 'shrink the state' camp ever .
Literally announcing it on the cover.
Not surprising though for long-term observers of the EBRD
our fondest memory of @EBRD in Romania?

In 2004, it paid EUR 125 million for a 12.5 % stake in profitable, state-owned bank BCR to accelerate its privatisation

In 2005, it sold it to Erste Bank for EUR 750 mln.

EUR 600 million reward for actively milking Romanian state.
yes, I hear you, isnt this daylight robbery of a poor country that in those years was severely underfunding its public health services, its education sector?
so fingers crossed for a new chapter in next year's report, 'Suckering the State: the view from EBRD', a mea culpa for shameless proselytising against the state while milking its resources.

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More from @DanielaGabor

12 Nov
fascinating Sintra @ecb Forum for insights into where the DSGE world is moving
- Fiscal strikes back (though not formally)
- we're all into average higher inflation targeting
- r* (natural rate of interest) is now so close to ZLB that QE for ever Image
who said that academics dont have superpowers? Image
and we're back to the 1990s, greetings from Alan Greenspan. Image
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
'Decarbonising is easy' once you drop market neutrality:

new policy paper setting out what next after @ecb @Lagarde and @Isabel_Schnabel accepted 'market neutrality' means subsidising carbon intensive companies.
we dug into bond data to identify carbon bias of @ecb corporate bond purchases, a bias that reflects the problematic commitment to market neutrality:

half of outstanding bonds included in the
ECB list are issued by carbon-intensive sectors.
how can ECB green its corporate bond purchase?

A lower-carbon list stops subsidies to fossil fuel companies.

A low-carbon list no longer subsidises carbon-intensive sectors.
Read 7 tweets
19 Oct
oh, the FT Editorial Board is now seeing unicorns.
short-lived though, gone in the next paragraph. As is any analytical coherence.
well, nice for US Treasury to have a mouth-piece with such global reach.

Nothing on private creditors refusing to join debt suspension/restructuring, it's all China.

ft.com/content/c4c0eb…
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
Goldman Sachs/Credit Suisse 2018 repo loans to Ecuador can easily fall under 'predatory lending' to poor countries. Not to exonerate Moreno government, but:

If you're a private institution, you take out repo loan to finance assets, say government bonds you previously purchased.
you 'sell' your government bonds to GS, agree to repurchase them later.
trick - you remain economic owner of government bond collateral & get interest payments from said government.

because you retain credit risk, your repo lender GS has to do collateral management.
w balance sheets: you, Investor 1, have pledged your Ecuador government bonds as collateral to GS, who's given you USD 90 cash for USD 100 of Ecuador government bonds. Haircut 10%.
Ecuador government bonds stay on your balance sheet (assets) because you remain economic owner.
Read 11 tweets
16 Oct
in repo/shadow banking stories, this on Egypt is quite bonkers: in 2016, to get an IMF loan, Egypt had to increase its international reserves.

HSBC offers a $2 billion structured repo trade, as follows.

risk.net/awards/5360881…
HSBC offered $2 billion in return for $4 bn Eurobond sovereign bond collateral (a 50% haircut) and an undisclosed cash margin.

problem? Egypt had no Eurobonds (dollar debt) to pledge as collateral, shut out of international capital markets
Ministry of Finance issues $4 bn in Eurobonds, which it transfers to central bank to pledge to HSBC.
Lots of busy lawyers trying to untangle this from 'monetary financing' or MMT echoes that would unsettle IMF, an institution that doesnt like overt coordination cb-treasury
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct
my @jacobinmag on what slow progress in debt suspension talks this week tell us about G20's Grand SDG Bargain w private finance: it cements unequal power relationship, which poor countries cant challenge & private creditors have few qualms in exploiting.

jacobinmag.com/2020/10/g20-wo…
it unpacks the political economy of the DSSI - the debt service suspension initiative - that was negotiated this week at the WB/IMF Annual Meetings, with disappointing results

and connects it to various interventions this week from poor countries at high risk of debt distress

Read 5 tweets

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