In danger of being lost amid the news chatter today, a rather useful Which exercise on what consumers want from trade deals. They want trade, but they also want high levels of protection. which.co.uk/news/2020/11/w… (disclosure, I participated with a factual introduction of UK trade)
Where I part company with campaigners such as @nickdearden75 - I believe trade is good, but it has to be subject to the right rules. And that what has happened since the 1990s is not about the wrong rules, but a new globalization of global supply chains driven by technology
That clip taken from an article quite rightly pointing out that President Biden doesn't mean the end of the discussion on whether a US trade deal is good for the UK. US trade policy is fixed and unfortunately rather hostile to trade not done in the US way theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
I believe the UK's ideal trade policy is to be open to all trade as long as it meets the modern regulatory expectations of consumers and producers. If the US can't meet that, then no trade deal. Because plenty of others will be happy to do so.
Be careful of paid lobbyists for US trade interests (mainly food producers) who say not wanting a US trade deal means not believing in trade, and distort arguments such as those relating to developing countries. They have thus far had a strong influence on the UK government.
The debate continues on whether the UK government does or does not really want a US trade deal. I believe all evidence suggests it really does, hence starting (and losing so far) a fight with farmers. Either way the UK trade debate will continue, and so it should. /end
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Have been thinking for some time about whether there will be a New Year 'reset' by the UK government, badly needed in economy, trade where plans and philosophy veer between listless and unrealistic, but would require more competent, less hostile and ideological key individuals.
Key problems include unbelievably bad government-business relationships (increasing likelihood of major supply chains leaving UK) and economic policy challenged by covid rebuilding and levelling up without obvious pathways beyond public spending and freeports.
It isn't easy to see what any government can do to stiumulate particular parts of their economy in an age of global and regional supply chains, but a particular challenge for a government committed to raising barriers to 50% of trade. Tough questions to answer.
Frankly I haven't heard of too many people in Westminster who think the central team around Johnson (Cain, Cummings etc) wouldn't be improved by substituting them for kindergarten attendees
Disingenuous in the extreme. The UK / Johnson has been vacillating on the deal that is there to be done since June. Nothing fundamental has changed since then. It won't change in the next week either. It just needs the UK to accept FTAs limit policy space.
Thought I'd draw a picture in case it still wasn't entirely clear to the UK what a Free Trade Agreement entails. It isn't @Usherwood class but it should do.
Now if they could kindly make a decision since UK business could actually use some certainty.
Only 600 pages?! What kind of baby trade agreement is this...
Sadly this is not correct. Said supermarkets and other major players, as well as UK government officials, were aware that EU checks on food would be required once they saw the text of the Northern Ireland protocol. This is down to that 'oven ready deal'
If you leave a single market, as Great Britain will be doing, then goods entering that market, which will include Northern Ireland, are subject to checks. Checks can be facilitated but not eliminated. This again has been known for some time.
What is needed more than anything else to facilitate trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a UK-EU trade deal. But the Northern Ireland protocol will still hold, and there will still be checks on goods both ways, whatever the UK government says otherwise.
I think the government genuinely does not realise what a big mess it has already created with the Internal Market Bill, and how continuing is going to make it a lot worse. They actually believe the US and EU are wrong. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
What ultimately happens with the Internal Market Bill is that either the government has to back down, in which case demonstrating weakness and poor judgement, or not, in which case no EU or US trade deal, and poor relations with both for the next four years.
As of today the UK government is on a crash course with reality, taking us all with it. Antagonism with all three trade superpowers, and no deals, lies before us unless the government now obviously u-turns. A government and country trapped by abysmal judgement and tactics.