The heuristic employed is that a higher test positivity indicates a higher count of missed infections, which makes sense. If testing were increasing effectively to capture new infections as they arise, positivity should decline.
Worked up the month ahead forecasts for Daily New Cases in r/o India and the states, using forecastHybrid in R. Largely as an exercise to see what the package does/can do.
Growth appears to persist, albeit further slowed down.
To be read as indicative only. 1/7
Rise in daily cases likely to persist for AP, AS ad BR with levelling off for CH.
2/7
Growth to persist steadily for GJ while declining for DL and GA (both expect mild rise in Daily New Cases level) and levelling off for CT
#Covid19India: State of the States:: Daily Positivity vs Daily Tests
Ignore the thick blue regression line and pay attention to the dashed redline which indicates level of positivity and which way it is trended with an increase in tests.
Boxplots on the axes indicate averages.
+