Thread by @UntergrundmannG

#Covid19India

The heuristic employed is that a higher test positivity indicates a higher count of missed infections, which makes sense. If testing were increasing effectively to capture new infections as they arise, positivity should decline.

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https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1278727660902985734

#Covid19India

Extending the same method to the testing/daily case reports for the States of India ...

Daily Test Capture | Estimated True Cases

AP: 1500 | 3500
AS: 750 | 2000
BR: 600 | 1800
CT: 150 | 170 (Last testing data NA)

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DL: 2000 | 30000
GA: 110 | 200
GJ: 850 | 6500
HP: 30 | 40 (Last testing data NA)

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HR: 650 | 2850
JH: 180 | 210 (Last testing data NA)
JK: 320 | 520
KA: 2300 | 6600

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KL: 360 | 760
MH: 7200| 140000
MP: 350 | 1250
OR: 700 | 2600

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PB: 210 | 410
RJ: 650 | 1400
TG: 1500 | 3200
TN: 4000 | 33000

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UP: 1200 | 4200
UT: 50 | 200
WB: 1000 | 5000

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Note: This is a heuristic and does not take into account testing backlogs etc. Should be read alongside changes in positivity with increase in tests. Some testing data has NAs - which needs to be offset yet.

That said, it's still clear which states are capturing 40%+ of cases.

PS: It is also worth bearing in mind that I have used the smoothed CUMULATIVE test positivity here. In case a rolling average of the DAILY tests positivity is to be used, the situation changes drastically for some of the states - going from bad to worse.