Thread by @anders_aslund

Putin appears to have achieved a complete victory in Nagorny Karabakh with minimal resources.
1. He let the wealthier & better-equipped Azerbaijani troops retake the Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenia since early 1990s, reaching a sustainable territorial setup.

2. By refusing earlier Russian military support to Armenia, Putin has cut democratic PM Pashinyan down to size. It remains to be seen whether the Armenian kleptocrats from Nagorny Karabakh will return to power, Putin's obvious preference.

3. By sending in 1,800 special forces as peacekeepers to Nagorny Karabakh, Putin has made Armenia even more dependent on Russia, making it increasingly look like a protectorate rather than an independent state.

4. Turkey supported Azerbaijan, but the ceasefire agreement was only concluded between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, excluding Turkey. That leaves all arbitration between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Kremlin's hands & Russia has published 2 versions of the agreement.

5. Ever since 1994, the so-called Minsk-group organized by the OSCE with three co-chairs, Russia, the US & France, has played the main international mediating role over Nagorny Karabakh. Now it played no role. The US, France & the EU were just irrelevant.

6. A big conclusion is that the West has become irrelevant. Under Trump, the US has withdrawn from real world affairs. It ridiculed itself by holding a meaningless meeting with the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign minister in Washington.

7. The EU has still no troops, and the West has got alienated from Turkey. While the West had contacts, it was not involved in the real action, neither militarily nor diplomatically. The only two relevant powers were Turkey & Russia & both seem victorious.

8. Yet, this agreement looks viable. Azerbaijan has received its occupied territories. Nagorny Karabakh has a special status connected with Armenia. Russian special forces can probably maintain the peace. This should have been achieved by other means much earlier.