there's been considerable publicity about Dr Shiva's characterization of the plot shown at right for Oakland County MI 2020 results. However, Oakland MI 2016 plot in same format yields nearly identical results. So, unfortunately, his plot proves nothing.
2/ Dr Shiva said that the downward slope PROVED use of an algorithm to tamper with data. It doesn't. Slope has something to do with straight ticket vs all vote results; and is not due to malicious algorithm.
here's my understanding of phenomenon. Straight Ticket Republicans obviously voted for Trump. So difference arises from balance between "Paul Ryan" non-Trump Reps and "50 Cent" pro-Trump Dems. Presumably pct of Paul Ryans vs 50 Cents increases in strongly R precincts.
to be more precise, the phenomenon seems odd, but the comparison between straight ticket and total margins is idiosyncratic and doesn't immediately cry out fraud to me. That same phenomenon existed in 2016 diminishes likelihood of fraud IMO.
here's another perspective. In precincts with increasingly high R Presidential vote, the proportion of R (to D) Straight Ticket votes increases slightly faster. Expressed this way, I don't think that it seems odd on its face.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Stephen McIntyre

Stephen McIntyre Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ClimateAudit

12 Nov
I'm re-examining MI Oakland County from first principles, since I agree that similarity of 2016 and 2020 doesn't preclude manipulation in both elections, tho I think that it counts against it.
2/ Technically, Shiva's comparison of total margins to straight ticket margins is (at best) "exploratory" - a term of art in statistics. We don't know anything about the properties of this statistic. So Shiva's claim to have PROVED manipulation is unjustified armwaving.
3/ Having said that, merely showing (as I did last night) that there were similar patterns in 2016 Oakland Co doesn't end the discussion, as commenters rightly observed, since we still don't really understand the result.
Read 12 tweets
7 Nov
I've put my statistical analyst hat back on and have started to parse election data.

I've noticed something very counter-intuitive in Pennsylvania data, which commentators have totally missed thus far.
2/ There is only one PA county where Trump dramatically improved Republican - Democrat margin. Without overthinking it, take a guess which one before looking at the answer.
3/ It's Philadelphia!!

Trump reduced the deficit in Philadelphia by ~44K votes from the 2016 deficit vs Hillary.
Read 26 tweets
5 Nov
Interesting to read US State Dept recent criticism of Belarus elections. "prohibition of local independent observers at polling stations" - uh, tell that to Trump campaign in Philadelphia
"detentions of peaceful protesters". "Peaceful protestors" - isn't that the term used by US media for Antifa rioters destroying cities?
"We regret that OSCE/ODIHR observers did not receive a timely invitation to monitor the vote." Uh, did OSCE/ODIHR observers even get an invitation to monitor vote in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin? Why not? Maybe they could have prevented rampant fraud or removed suspicion
Read 6 tweets
5 Nov
PA website shows 763K mail-in ballots still to be counted with Trump lead of 165K. At split of mail in ballots observed thus far, this would indicate fairly comfortable Biden victory. But there's reason to believe that rate of Biden gain/100K count is going to slow down.
2/ PA shows outstanding mail ballots by county and elsewhere shows R/D proportion in each county.
votespa.com/About-Election…
The inventory of Philadelphia+Pittsburgh uncounted mailin is now 165K, which would prob reduce margin by ~103K. Not enough on its own.
3/ of the remaining ~600K, there is a slight majority in counties with Republican majority. For example, York, a Republican county, has 77K uncounted.
Read 7 tweets
3 Nov
@Alexey__Kovalev 1/ good that you're covering this story, but you're still not up to speed on the entire story. In addition to his purported Russian network, Steele instructed Danchenko to locate sources within the Trump campaign in the US. This instruction resulted in the most explosive and
@Alexey__Kovalev 2/ and damaging memos in the dossier - the reports (especially Report 95 right after Wikileaks drop) alleging collusion between Trump campaign and Russian intel services, including the supposed devil's bargain to hack the DNC and publish DNC hack at Wikileaks to elect Trump.
@Alexey__Kovalev 3/ the Steele dossier attributed the information in these memos to Sergei Millian. However, it can be proven that Millian never met Danchenko (or Steele). The narrative in these memos was entirely fabricated by one or both of Steele and Danchenko. None of Galkina, Podobedova etc
Read 7 tweets
3 Nov
Interview with Olga Galkina (Source 3) published today in Russia. She says that Danchenko fabricated information attributed to her. mk.ru/politics/2020/…
2/ in my jugement, there are multiple layers of fabrication involving both Steele and Danchenko, with Steele's fabrications being much the worse. However, Steele and Danchenko both employ the classic The Other Dude Did It defense. Both should have been charged as co-conspirators.
3/ Read the interview. It's very interesting. Galkina says that it is impossible that she had the communications attribution to her by Danchenko. She calls for a full investigation of Steele dossier fraud.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!