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David Montgomery

12 Nov, 13 tweets, 6 min read

The latest #COVID19 data is out in Minnesota and it continues to be mostly bad news. 39 newly reported deaths, the second-highest ever behind only yesterday’s record. The 7-day average is up to 34 deaths/day.

Deaths are rising and at record highs both in and out of long-term care facilities. The average #COVID19 death rate in LTC facilities is now HIGHER than the May peak:

Yet another daily record in the number of new #COVID19 hospitalizations:

Minnesota reported 7,228 cases today. Two weeks ago Minnesota had never reported more than 3,000 cases in a single day.

BUT today’s record-high case totals ALSO come on record-high testing volume. This is the sole good news in today’s #COVID19 report in Minnesota — more than 48,000 newly reported tests, a 7-day average of more than 38,000.

The growth in new tests doesn’t explain away the rise in cases, though. Despite record-high testing, the positivity rate rose today, and is currently at a 7-day average of 14.2%. The record is 16.3% in May.

Newly reported cases continue to rise in every part of the state. The only regions of the state with fewer than 100 cases per 100K people are Hennepin/Ramsey and southeast MN, and cases are rising there, too.

Cases are rising in every age group, though they appear to be rising most quickly in 20-somethings. (I’ll see if I can unpack this more precisely in a bit.)

For those who are curious, I got a fresh batch of death certificate data today, and #COVID19 deaths by date reported continue to match up very closely with actual death dates (after accounting for the couple weeks it can take for death certificates to be filed).

Here’s the #COVID19 positivity rate by Minnesota county right now. Notice the hotspots in east-central Minnesota, and along the western border, and how southeastern MN stands out in a good (or at least less-bad) way.

Northern and central Minnesota right now are seeing per capita #COVID19 death rates as high as Hennepin/Ramsey did during the May peak:

#COVID19 deaths continue to be overwhelmingly concentrated in the elderly — and especially the oldest Minnesotans (though deaths do happen at every age bracket, just less frequently as a share of the population):

Right now 0.7% of Minnesota residents have an active, confirmed case of #COVID19, and this is rising rapidly.

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David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

14 Nov

Another day, another smashed #COVID19 record in Minnesota. Today, 8,703 newly reported cases, 20% higher than the old record set two days ago.

The 7-day average is nearly 5,900 new cases per day.

Here’s cases by sample date, a week delayed. You can see tests done last Saturday had nearly 4,000 positives. A week or so before THAT, that would have been a record high for a weekday, let alone weekends that usually have lower volumes.

Now, today’s record 8,703 confirmed #COVID19 cases did come on a record 51,956 tests. But tests are growing at 1.2% per day, while cases are expanding by 3.1% per day. Minnesota’s 7-day average positivity rate is 15%.

Read 11 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

13 Nov

Another day of 40+ #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota, taking the 7-day average up to 35/day. That’s twice as high as two weeks ago.

These #COVID19 deaths are happening at record paces both in and out of long-term-care facilities.

But the news on newly confirmed cases… wasn’t terrible? Yes, more than 5,500 new cases, which is super high. But the number of cases went down from yesterday while tests went up, which hasn’t been the norm lately.

One day doesn’t make a trend, of course.

Read 7 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

11 Nov

THREAD: Buckle up, because here’s a story about how the course of history was altered… by sheep in coats. 1/

2/ Our story begins with Auguste de Marmont, the Duke of Ragusa. Born in 1774, Marmont met a young cadet named Napoleon Bonaparte, and soon became the rising general’s friend, and later aide-de-camp. Marmont rose through the ranks himself, commanding a corps by 1805.

3/ In 1809, Napoleon made Marmont a Marshal of France, though wags quipped that Marmont had only been promoted because of his long friendship with Napoleon. Marmont fought in Spain and Germany, and in the defense of France from the Coalition’s invasion in 1814.

Read 42 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

11 Nov

56 new #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota. That’s not just a record, it’s half again as large as the old record, set just last week. Minnesota is now averaging 32 COVID deaths per day over the past week, and rising *sharply*.

These new #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota are rising both in and out of long-term-care facilities. Non-LTC deaths are at a record high. LTC deaths are averaging 19.7/day, a faction below the record of 20/day set on May 30.

New #COVID19 hospitalizations are down a bit from yesterday’s record, but are up week-over-week, setting a new 7-day average record of 186/day. A month ago this was 67/day.

Read 8 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

10 Nov

A new one-day record today for newly reported #COVID19 hospitalizations in Minnesota:

Today’s 4,906 newly reported cases put Minnesota’s 7-day average up to 4,665 cases per day, up 200 from yesterday’s figure, as this continues its steady rise:

Unlike recent weeks, we didn’t see a collapse in testing values in today’s Tuesday report. The positivity rate actually declined, both day-over-day and week-over-week. But as I always say, don’t make too big a deal over minor blips in the data. Wait to see what’s sustained.

Read 10 tweets

David Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

9 Nov

Minnesota reported 3,930 new #COVID19 cases today, down from 5,924 yesterday.

But this isn’t good news. Testing volume fell, as it often does in Monday reports. Lower testing explains ALL of the drop, & then some — the positivity rate continued to climb, even as cases fell.

Like new cases, newly reported #COVID19 deaths fell day-over-day but are rising week-over-week. The 7-day average here is now 27 #COVID19 deaths per day, a record high for Minnesota.

#COVID19 deaths are rising both in and out of long-term care facilities. Non-LTC #COVID19 deaths are higher than they’ve ever been.

Read 12 tweets

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