Thread by @classicmacro

Fact that coronavirus has been "over-rated" does not make it a hoax. Corona is a big deal, just not as bad as we thought. Chart shows people with COVID in hospitals (chart not per capita).

Countries have been actively preparing since March. Resources available to deal with the pandemic have risen dramatically. Chart shows the number of ICU beds globally.

Increased resources represents on of the reasons for case fatality rates collapsing.

The other reasons are widespread awareness, and the so-known "testdemic". The more you test, the more you find (first chart). The US for example is testing 1.4 million people per day (second chart).

This chart shows excess mortaility, a great measure to showcase the impact of coronavirus. In the US, that is +9%. In Sweden, that is -4%, the sixth lowest in all of Europe.

Excess mortality is negative in many countries.

Now focus in excess mortality in the 15-64 age group and will notice most countries have negative excess mortality. The media doesn't tell you that.

Here's daily new COVID deaths per capita in Western countries. Colors are hard to distinguish, so focus on the ranked list on the right. It shows that countries that did less to restrict freedom (eg. SWE, DEN, BRA) are doing much better than others.

See: ourworldindata.org/policy-respons…

Wearing a mask helps. But a mask is not necessary when outside and not in crowded places. Its usefulness is over-stated: people believes a flimsy face covering fixes it all. But it doesn't. Interestingly, people in countries suffering the least don't use masks outside.

A Brazilian study found that a 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a 0.5% increase in mortality.

Lockdowns save lives, but unemployment kills.

The decision to lockdown should not be taken by doctors alone. Medicine is not the only science.

thelancet.com/journals/lance…