"One of the clearest indications of stagnation is the flatlining of energy usage...Hall calls the long-term trend of about 7% annual growth in energy usage per capita the 'Henry Adams Curve'. In the late 20th century, we fell off of it." rootsofprogress.org/where-is-my-fl…
"A good explanation for technological stagnation is that the only technological revolution of the last 50 years, computing, was the only one that didn’t need more power than could be provided by the technology of the 1970s." rootsofprogress.org/where-is-my-fl…
"An even greater regulatory burden applies to nuclear power, which Hall blames for the skyrocketing cost of power plants in the US."
"According to a study conducted by Tillinghast-Towers Perrin, the cost of the U.S. tort system consumes about two percent of GDP, on average...without it our economy today would be twice the size it actually is."
I could excerpt more of this phenomenal book review by @jasoncrawford, but you should read the whole thing (link in first tweet). Then support his work here: patreon.com/rootsofprogress
The book he's reviewing is "Where is My Flying Car?". Don't judge this self-published book by its cover, just read it. It's only pi ($3.14) dollars on Amazon.
amazon.com/Where-My-Flyin…

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More from @balajis

10 Nov
A new way to fund open source?

- Be open source dev
- Issue a token
- Hold X% of it
- Has 0 value initially
- Award (100-X)% of it over time to folks who contribute code
- Companies then buy token to prioritize bugs & features
- Suddenly, an economy arises!
The basic idea is that the token starts as zero value. There's no ICO, it's just a way for the lead dev to say thank you for people submitting pull requests.

Over time, it organically gains utility, as it becomes a way to pay for the time of people with skill in that codebase.
The value of the token is essentially a bet on how big the open source project will get. If you believe that a project may attain thousands of stars and forks, you buy the token as a way of supporting the devs *and* capturing upside.

Motivated by:
github.com/Marak/faker.js… Image
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov
Lockdown = Dem votes down?


If Ds are less likely to vote in-person this year than Rs due to COVID, and only (say) 80% of those would have voted in-person actually end up voting by mail, that could mean a big partisan swing to Republicans.

This *may* be what 538 is missing. 🧵
Put another way: whenever you convert from one channel to another, like going from in-person to mail, you will lose some fraction of people.

If a much larger share of Ds are doing that conversion this year than Rs, they lose more votes. That could be the big unmodeled factor.
I looked at how 538 modeled COVID's impact on turnout. It appears they model COVID’s impact solely as higher uncertainty. But not as a partisan factor that favors Rs who will vote in-person more than Ds because they are less concerned about COVID.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-f…
Read 8 tweets
1 Nov
YIMBY: no point in reforming SF anymore, just go remote

Chinese FDI into the US: was rising fast, then fell off a cliff

International travel: 2019 may be generational high water mark

Restaurants, bars, concerts: the Western physical leisure economy was soaring, now hurting
Note that the FDI turnaround did start after 2016, but this year’s events have made it highly unlikely that it will bounce back in the same way.
One thing I’m reminded of is @benedictevans’ point that something reaches its final and perfect form right before it is completely disrupted.

Hard to top the options for fun, food, and travel for 2010s urban Americans. A giant amusement park of wine bars & fancy tacos.
Read 4 tweets
31 Oct
Want a totally fresh take on tech journalism?

Behold: an interviewer who knows enough about DNS to conduct an informative interview with the inventor of DNS. welcometothejungle.com/en/articles/bt…
Great work by @sarveshmathi on this interview.

Really illustrates some key concepts, including (a) that technically literate people should be writing & reporting on tech, (b) there’s plenty of talent out there internationally we haven’t tapped, and (c) we can do so much better.
This whole series of articles is some of the best tech journalism I’ve ever seen. Because it’s not all gossip columns and funding rounds. The reader actually learns something. It’s like @QuantaMagazine but for tech. welcometothejungle.com/en/collections…
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
The future is Communist Capital vs Woke Capital vs Crypto Capital.
Each represents a left/right fusion that’s bizarre by the standards of the 1980s consensus.

It’s PRC vs MMT vs BTC.
Communist Capital is the ideology of the Chinese Communist Party. It’s capitalism checked by the centralized power of the Chinese state, as pithily summarized here. quillette.com/2020/10/10/is-…
Read 5 tweets
23 Oct
Media corporations are slowly realizing that leverage has shifted.

You don’t need to give free content to Bezos, Sulzberger, or Murdoch employees to get the word out anymore.

Just build your own audience, and go direct if you have something to say. cjr.org/public_editor/…
You no longer need to pay a toll to a media middleman to reach an audience. You don’t need them at all.

“The internet...destroyed one of the media’s most important sources of power: being the only place that could offer access to an audience.” cjr.org/public_editor/…
The new vanity metric is vanity media. You simply do not need legacy media coverage to reach an audience. It’s junk traffic.
Read 5 tweets

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