- In my opinion, this 'must not vacate Kailash range' is another charade being spread to show return to status quo ante as in April 2020 as compromise of national security by the Modi government.
- Earlier, the bar set was Chinese withdrawal from F4 back to F8. And if +
#Ladakh
- Earlier, the bar set was Chinese withdrawal from F4 back to F8. And if +
#Ladakh
+ we go by some reports, this seems to be in works. Though, we need to wait for more details and the fine-print of agreement.
- Suddenly, many naysayers which has predicted that Chinese haven't camped in F4 to go back, will have egg on their face.
- So, now the goalpost has been+
- Suddenly, many naysayers which has predicted that Chinese haven't camped in F4 to go back, will have egg on their face.
- So, now the goalpost has been+
+ shifted to holding the Kailash range ridgeline.
- Before IA went and occupied the ridgeline, not a single commentator, whether ex-army or our 'strategic experts', had even mentioned this possible line of action.
- Now, suddenly, it has become a holy grail.
- Today, we're in +
- Before IA went and occupied the ridgeline, not a single commentator, whether ex-army or our 'strategic experts', had even mentioned this possible line of action.
- Now, suddenly, it has become a holy grail.
- Today, we're in +
+ a binary situation of F4-F8 and Kailash range. Gogra and Hot Springs are related to this core event. Depsang is also related though, situation there is slightly different.
- What we did in Kailash range, can be repeated by the Chinese along other areas, especially from Chushul+
- What we did in Kailash range, can be repeated by the Chinese along other areas, especially from Chushul+
+ to Demchok.
- On one hand, GOI was advised against making the mistake of converting LAC into another LOC i.e. 24x7 occupation of every inch of land.
- Now, we've this!
- True, it is not in India's interest if the Chinese were to occupy the Kailash range ridgeline but +
- On one hand, GOI was advised against making the mistake of converting LAC into another LOC i.e. 24x7 occupation of every inch of land.
- Now, we've this!
- True, it is not in India's interest if the Chinese were to occupy the Kailash range ridgeline but +
+ at the same time, we need to go back to April 2020 status quo.
- Between the army and political establishment, let them work out the best solution.
- There is inherent risk in any decision but ultimately, there will be cost benefit trade-off.
- Between the army and political establishment, let them work out the best solution.
- There is inherent risk in any decision but ultimately, there will be cost benefit trade-off.
- Analysis of 1962 battle of Chushul by Lt Gen Panag is a perfect example of hindsight being 20/20
- All the info which he's quoting to base his opinion, became available MANY years AFTER 1962
- IA in 1962 didn't know whether to fight or police borders.
theprint.in/opinion/if-ind…
- All the info which he's quoting to base his opinion, became available MANY years AFTER 1962
- IA in 1962 didn't know whether to fight or police borders.
theprint.in/opinion/if-ind…
The constant pessimistic assessment, at play from Day-01 of this stand-off, continues. I can bet if the protagonists were India (in place of China) and Pakistan (in place of India), this author would've been singing paeans about Pakistan. @elmihiro
foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/01/ind…
foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/01/ind…
+
- I say the above because when there is power mismatch between two powers, smaller power wins if it does not explicitly looses or achieves a stalemate, while bigger power looses, if it does not explicitly is seen as having won.
- Applies to India, Pakistan and China & India
+
- I say the above because when there is power mismatch between two powers, smaller power wins if it does not explicitly looses or achieves a stalemate, while bigger power looses, if it does not explicitly is seen as having won.
- Applies to India, Pakistan and China & India
+
+
- In case of neutral assessment, the million dollar question that analysts should be asking is this - What has China achieved?
- All it has gained is few sq.km of space in F4-F8 area.
- At what cost?
- Where China earlier had 3,000-4,000 troops in eastern +
- In case of neutral assessment, the million dollar question that analysts should be asking is this - What has China achieved?
- All it has gained is few sq.km of space in F4-F8 area.
- At what cost?
- Where China earlier had 3,000-4,000 troops in eastern +
+ Ladakh against India, now it has had to deploy between 60,000 - 80,000 troops!
- Sure, we have to do counter deployment as well and it involves costs.
- But at a more strategic level, China has revealed its hand and managed to replace Pakistan in the mind-space of Indians as+
- Sure, we have to do counter deployment as well and it involves costs.
- But at a more strategic level, China has revealed its hand and managed to replace Pakistan in the mind-space of Indians as+
+ India's prime adversary.
- Even if in fits and starts, GOI will be forced to address the requirements of Services to manage China, as well as Pakistan.
- Things are already in motion.
- Sure, China has more defense budget but now its will spend millions where it was getting+
- Even if in fits and starts, GOI will be forced to address the requirements of Services to manage China, as well as Pakistan.
- Things are already in motion.
- Sure, China has more defense budget but now its will spend millions where it was getting+
+ by spending only fraction of cost.
- For the first time since Ussuri river discord, and threat of USSR invasion, China now has an ACTIVE border.
- And BTW, India loosing 1,000 sq.km in Depsang is load of BS. I'm too lazy to make a video about it but if +
- For the first time since Ussuri river discord, and threat of USSR invasion, China now has an ACTIVE border.
- And BTW, India loosing 1,000 sq.km in Depsang is load of BS. I'm too lazy to make a video about it but if +
+ required, I will make a video on it in the coming week.
Excellent analysis by @detresfa_ on positions occupied by the IA in Fingers Area and Kailash Range.
- Image-01: Satellite analysis by @detresfa_
- Image-02: This is what I'd postulated as possible course of movement. Also, it seems we've not moved beyond along red dotted line.
+
- Image-01: Satellite analysis by @detresfa_
- Image-02: This is what I'd postulated as possible course of movement. Also, it seems we've not moved beyond along red dotted line.
+
Indian positions along the Kailash Range ridgeline.
- Well, Indians deployed tanks because Chinese had tanks in the area.
- There is nothing 'shocking' about this!
- If we can see their tanks from our posts like in the screen grab below, it shows the objective of occupying Kailash ridge-line has been met
zeenews.india.com/india/china-pr…
- There is nothing 'shocking' about this!
- If we can see their tanks from our posts like in the screen grab below, it shows the objective of occupying Kailash ridge-line has been met
zeenews.india.com/india/china-pr…
Chinese soldiers seem to be loosing their way too frequently. Seems like an effort to probe Indian defenses and probes.
deccanherald.com/national/china…
deccanherald.com/national/china…
- Another article where political bias colors military and professional judgement.
- WRT Doklam, the good General does not answer whether Bhutan wanted India to escalate beyond a point.
- This political leadership had in 2014 itself called the Chinese +
deccanherald.com/specials/sunda…
- WRT Doklam, the good General does not answer whether Bhutan wanted India to escalate beyond a point.
- This political leadership had in 2014 itself called the Chinese +
deccanherald.com/specials/sunda…
+ bluff in the Chumur sector in south-east Ladakh, forcing them to back-off.
- Even then, India had done quick mobilization to create unfavorable ratios for the Chinese.
- Wuhan (April 2018) & Mamallapuram (Oct 2019) were an attempt to keep off any confrontation so that India+
- Even then, India had done quick mobilization to create unfavorable ratios for the Chinese.
- Wuhan (April 2018) & Mamallapuram (Oct 2019) were an attempt to keep off any confrontation so that India+
+ could concentrate on economy.
- But obviously, this was not to be!
- WRT current stand-off, if something that GOI should be faulted for, is for not updating the decision making matrix and response time.
- In my opinion, rather than an intelligence failure, what we had was +
- But obviously, this was not to be!
- WRT current stand-off, if something that GOI should be faulted for, is for not updating the decision making matrix and response time.
- In my opinion, rather than an intelligence failure, what we had was +
+ a delay in decision making, which gave space to the Chinese to make initial gains.
- To say that current PM is delusional about China is nothing but political bias of the good General
- Somehow, none of our esteemed strategic thinkers do an assessment of what exactly did China+
- To say that current PM is delusional about China is nothing but political bias of the good General
- Somehow, none of our esteemed strategic thinkers do an assessment of what exactly did China+
+ gain by this misadventure?
- Even if they tried, I won't be surprised if they come-up with some grand strategy on part of China as per some mythical Sun Tzu tenet of war.
- Even if they tried, I won't be surprised if they come-up with some grand strategy on part of China as per some mythical Sun Tzu tenet of war.
- Another one!
- IA occupying Kailash Range which threw whole Chinese game plan into dustbin, is just a 'silver lining' while whatever Chinese have done is some grand strategy!
- And he doesn't even mention India troops sitting a higher point no F4.
deccanherald.com/specials/sunda…
- IA occupying Kailash Range which threw whole Chinese game plan into dustbin, is just a 'silver lining' while whatever Chinese have done is some grand strategy!
- And he doesn't even mention India troops sitting a higher point no F4.
deccanherald.com/specials/sunda…
- With eastern Ladakh having settled into a stalemate, here comes a fresh attempt to somehow create a controversy and question the official stand on the situations.
- Lets look at the claims made the reporter, basis an interview by a local councilor +
thehindu.com/news/national/…
- Lets look at the claims made the reporter, basis an interview by a local councilor +
thehindu.com/news/national/…
Stop the press!
This reporter has discovered something which the GOI was trying to suppress.
Or not.
With Indian and Chinese armies in a face-off on LAC, where they weren't earlier, isn't it obvious villages close to LAC 'MAY' witness Chinese activity?
This reporter has discovered something which the GOI was trying to suppress.
Or not.
With Indian and Chinese armies in a face-off on LAC, where they weren't earlier, isn't it obvious villages close to LAC 'MAY' witness Chinese activity?
https://twitter.com/vijaita/status/1348474368322531329?s=20
- Look at the location of Chushul village, the LAC, and some important landmarks on the LAC which have been in the news.
- It is possible that some Chinese activity might be visible through the Spanggur Gap. Or may be on Black Top.
- But even here, with IA sitting on the ridge+
- It is possible that some Chinese activity might be visible through the Spanggur Gap. Or may be on Black Top.
- But even here, with IA sitting on the ridge+
+ line, and the Chinese on the other side, what Chinese activity will be visible over the ridge-line from the Chushul village area?
- Similarly, villages ofMerak and Kakshet are 20+ km from the LAC.
- Even in the clear atmosphere of Ladakh, human eye can see men, and tents at+
- Similarly, villages ofMerak and Kakshet are 20+ km from the LAC.
- Even in the clear atmosphere of Ladakh, human eye can see men, and tents at+
+ 23-26 km distance?
- Chinese soldiers are manning their position during a stand-off! And this is supposed to be news?
- BTW, there was no stand-off in 2018, so I guess, Chinese did not feel the need to be on Black-Top?
- Difficult to understand?
- Chinese soldiers are manning their position during a stand-off! And this is supposed to be news?
- BTW, there was no stand-off in 2018, so I guess, Chinese did not feel the need to be on Black-Top?
- Difficult to understand?
https://twitter.com/vijaita/status/1348474634325250051?s=20
- This is the only worthy data-point here.
- During winters, grazing options are limited, and any denial of grazing areas will adversely impact the locals.
- Army should work with local government and make feed available to the locals.
- During winters, grazing options are limited, and any denial of grazing areas will adversely impact the locals.
- Army should work with local government and make feed available to the locals.
https://twitter.com/vijaita/status/1348474763136520194?s=20
- From the looks of it, these pics have been taken from ridge-line overlooking the lake.
- Which village is located on a ridge-line?
- Which village is located on a ridge-line?
https://twitter.com/vijaita/status/1348476802604310529?s=20
- The interview as a proof.
- Never mind that nothing he says in it is earth shattering.
- Except for one excerpt in the article attributed to him, where he says Chinese are in upper reaches of F2 as well.
- And aerial survey will confirm it.
- Of course +
- Never mind that nothing he says in it is earth shattering.
- Except for one excerpt in the article attributed to him, where he says Chinese are in upper reaches of F2 as well.
- And aerial survey will confirm it.
- Of course +
https://twitter.com/vijaita/status/1348475849482194945?s=20
+ our journalist never bothered to ask him how does he know that the Chinese are there?
- Only recently did @detresfa_ put out satellite image showing Indian troops sitting at higher elevation on F4.
- How and when did the Chinese reach higher reaches of F2?
- Too logical a +
- Only recently did @detresfa_ put out satellite image showing Indian troops sitting at higher elevation on F4.
- How and when did the Chinese reach higher reaches of F2?
- Too logical a +
+ question to be expected from our reporter.
- A funny thing you'll see in the interview snippet shared by the reporter is the absolute lack of knowledge about the geography of the area,
- This when we've been months into the stand-off.
- But then, when the agenda is to put out +
- A funny thing you'll see in the interview snippet shared by the reporter is the absolute lack of knowledge about the geography of the area,
- This when we've been months into the stand-off.
- But then, when the agenda is to put out +
+ a sensational story, such trivial matters don't count.
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