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15 Nov, 9 tweets, 3 min read
Bluntly restating what we already knew. The Internal Market Bill provisions relating to Northern Ireland will cast the UK into international wilderness with the EU and US. Assumed incidentally at the time to be another Cummings tactical masterclass.
How have we got to 6 weeks from the end of the transition period without a decision on future relations with the EU? Well, this seems the likeliest explanation
I think that most of the government and Conservative MPs have no idea of what it will be like to deal / trade with the EU once properly outside. And you can't get that 50% of UK trade back from much further away questions. But don't look to the PM for difficult truths...
And if we don't get a trade deal with the EU we will now be one of the few countries in the world without one with our significant neighbours - after the signing of the RCEP
He's only repeating lines. He doesn't understand them. Least of all, he doesn't understand that all trade deals come with rules.
This appears to be a Conservative Minister entirely comfortable with UK isolation from the EU, and heading towards self-sufficiency. Which is frankly jaw dropping.
ALL. TRADE. DEALS. REDUCE. NATIONAL. CONTROL. OVER. LAWS.

(oh, and how do you take back control of trade, given another party is always involved?)
Blunt and accurate.
The government's stated red lines over an EU trade deal would actually have stopped the Japan deal. Would also stop a US deal. Only seem to be a problem for the EU one. Which also happens to be 50% of our trade. Political and economic illiteracy.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
16 Nov
So, another crucial week in UK-EU talks. Not the first, far from the last. And bluntly, right now we are on course for no deal. Nothing to do with the content outstanding, which is eminently solvable, but the language on both sides. It isn't the language of deals. 1/n
The reported outstanding EU-UK content. Fish, where the outcome is somewhere between the UK having all, and status quo. State Aid, where shared principles have been proposed. Level Playing Field, which we see in all trade deals. And Internal Market Bill / Northern Ireland. 2/
The solutions to outstanding EU / UK content. Fish - splits in various ways. State Aid - UK accept, ultimately not a major constraint. Level Playing Field - similar. Northern Ireland - implement the protocol sensitively as per existing discussions. Easy? Sadly... 3/
Read 22 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
15 Nov
Disappointed I haven't yet seen a 'Cummings Greatest Hits in government' list, because it really is a fine collection. So let's try to correct this terrible wrong. Tagline - 'Unlike most Greatest Hits you never want to hear these again...'
Never start with the greatest hit, so let's go with Track 1, the algorithm to fix the planning system. Nothing could be more guaranteed to enrage as many Conservative MPs as possible while failing to fix whatever problem it was trying to solve. telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/2…
Track 2, one of my favourites, epic and petulant responses to media articles. Such as "his anonymous source is variously described as a ‘senior adviser to Downing Street’ and a ‘senior Downing Street adviser’. The two things are not the same." healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/res…
Read 14 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
14 Nov
I am not at all clear why the EU is continually failing to name a latest date by which a trade deal can be done. Presume there is some logic, but I don't see it. Reality is 6 weeks is nothing like enough for scrutiny and implementation. Why won't anyone say this?
The broad outlines of the deal have been known since June. The fact we are waiting for a UK decision to go for this or not since September. These talks obviously need a deadline. Why will the EU not say what it is?
If I was a UK negotiator I could easily read the EU refusal to set a deadline as a suggestion of desperation to do a deal, just as EU negotiators think the UK might be desperate. Both would be wrong I think, but it shows these negotiations are right now in a bit of a mess.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
13 Nov
Looks to me like the latest attempt by Downing Street to message that the EU needs to stop pressuring the UK or be to blame for no-deal. Will likely be seen as such. Doesn't change the dial, we know the UK needs to compromise on LPF, EU on fish thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…
In an indeal world that we don't have the UK government would simply come out and say we accept Level Playing Field for a trade deal, but it can't either / both ERG pressure or more likely they still think there can be a deal without. Article also doesn't mention N Ireland / IMB.
Much talk of a government reset this morning. Certainly needed in personalities. Also needed in terms of accepting realities of what borders and trade deals are, the pressures we are putting the economy under, what global Britain can and can't be etc. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Nov
There has definitely been a shift in mood music around UK-EU negotiations this week, a UK hardening of tone almost as a response to the widely held view that we would be under more pressure due to the election of President Biden.

But still no actual UK decision on deal or not.
Whatever happens the UK government has now backed its way into a no-win corner, seen to be either backing down to President Biden or unable to comprehend that all trade deals require sacrifices of policy space.
And even with the sovereignty folk that will inevitably blame the EU for anything, the failure of a UK government to make the EU back down is still not going to be a good look.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Nov
Anguilla. Gibraltar. Falkland Islands. Forgotten problem territories of Brexit?

Comes to think of it, we hear rather more of Kent lorry parks than potential problems at Holyhead or Cairnryan.
Anguilla. mycountryeurope.com/politics/brexi…
Falkland Islands. en.mercopress.com/2020/06/25/uk-…
Read 8 tweets

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