Thread by @DavidHenigUK

So, another crucial week in UK-EU talks. Not the first, far from the last. And bluntly, right now we are on course for no deal. Nothing to do with the content outstanding, which is eminently solvable, but the language on both sides. It isn't the language of deals. 1/n

The reported outstanding EU-UK content. Fish, where the outcome is somewhere between the UK having all, and status quo. State Aid, where shared principles have been proposed. Level Playing Field, which we see in all trade deals. And Internal Market Bill / Northern Ireland. 2/

The solutions to outstanding EU / UK content. Fish - splits in various ways. State Aid - UK accept, ultimately not a major constraint. Level Playing Field - similar. Northern Ireland - implement the protocol sensitively as per existing discussions. Easy? Sadly... 3/

But as noted yesterday, this is utterly uncompromising language. One effect is to raise the cost of compromise on the UK side. No modern trade deal will meet this test, and that increases the Brexiteer backlash if there is a deal. 4/

https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1327924802103947265

Most obviously a trade deal cannot "take back control of our trade". But more significantly, as @Sime0nStylites and others point out, "I will not be changing it". If deliberate, this brings UK splits into the open, and increases the cost of a deal. 5/

On Northern Ireland the government has consistently said the disputed Internal Market Bill clauses are needed as a safety net. That again is not neutral language. Because a safety net is always needed, remembering no deal removes GB-NI checks completely. 6/

On the EU side there is similarly no sign of compromise. It isn't likely. Enforcement and the level playing field is an increasing part of all EU trade policy. No ratification of a deal if the Internal Market Bill clauses remain. Even on fish, little ground offered. 7/

Fish is a particularly interesting one - where the final result cannot possibly be a win for all, and is most likely to be a loss for all. Because UK fleets will get less than everything, EU fleets less than current, and no-deal UK fleets won't be able to sell the fish. 8/

Now all of this has been known since September at least, and nothing has changed. It looks unlikely to change by negotiating teams locking horns for another week. You'd need some new ingredient, maybe PM to President. But no sign of that happening. 9/

For both sides no-deal is currently preferable to the deal the other is offering. For the EU, a deal abandoning the Northern Ireland Protocol and only a soft Level Playing Field won't pass Parliament. For the UK, anything but this means taking on the Brexiteers. 10/

Also both sides think the other will weaken after a period of no-deal. And since neither side has a particular vision of future relations with the other, there isn't some bigger picture to hold this togther. 11/

The UK government in particular has no coherent no-deal plan or understanding. Caught between Brexit ultras wanting to tear up the Withdrawal Agreement and manufacturing business saying they will leave, it could be very messy. 12/

My gut feel is that in the event of no-deal we will see formal mediation by a Biden administration with regard to Northern Ireland, as the only way to broker a solution. That won't look good for either UK or EU, but it will be worse for the UK as the treaty is quite clear. 13/

There's still time for an alternative ending. But it requires a level of domestic leadership and taking on of domestic interests from Johnson and Macron in particular that seems unlikely. Or in the UK Gove or Sunak taking on Johnson, which seems unlikely. 14/

This is the depressing logic that EU analysts that @BEERG and @FabianZuleeg have been saying for a while. The EU side understands better I think how deals happen. And they don't come from both sides rousing domestic opponents of a deal. 15/

Can the costs of no-deal still shake the UK side to making the frankly insignificant moves (except to Brexit ultras)? Unfortunately the incorrect narrative that any deal is so thin as to make little difference also hinders us. And overall the UK government is too complacent. 16/

With the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership this weekend the UK will now be comprehensively isolated as the only G7 country without a trade deal with major neighbours. Even a thin deal matters. But the UK narrative says otherwise. 17/

It isn't all over yet. Both sides could yet claim a triumphant deal. And deal or no-deal, UK-EU talks are here to stay. But there is currently no movement towards the required compromises, or wave of support for a deal. Injury time and behind. Can you win from there? 18/ end

PS There's a Farage video saying the PM is about to sell out on Brexit. I won't link it. But a sign of the pressure building to go for no-deal.

PPS reminded, Scotland. Though as even the Conservative leader in Scotland says too many decisions made in London ignore them...

PPPS - we disagree! Partly I think the pressure on the UK PM is not going away if he waits another couple of weeks. Mediators welcome (that's you @Sime0nStylites)

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1328242174413205505

More PS - just as for the UK I don't see EU messaging steering towards compromise. You can word this differently if you want to do so, or not say anything, but right now both sides are emphasising toughness.

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1328273845946552320