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John Lichfield

15 Nov, 10 tweets, 2 min read

Here is my latest French Covid number crunching thread with some, tentative GOOD NEWS (Hooray!) The flow of C19 patients into hospital and intensive care has slowed substantially in the last week and numbers in IC actually fell yesterday for the first time since 21 Aug.
1/10

Other good news. The positive rate for tests has fallen in the last week from 20.3% to 17.3%. The daily average of new cases has fallen sharply - to 29,413 from 53,344 last week. BUT... (bad news coming) 2/10

The daily mortality rate (most lagging of indicators) has increased once again - to 582.4 from 488.5 last week. There have been nearly 4,000 deaths in 7 days, including 1,230 in care homes. These figures approach those of the darkest days of the 1st Wave in April…. BUT
3/10

It does appear that 2nd lock-down (now 16 days old) - and urban curfews which went before - have slowed the spread of the virus. This offers some home for opening of “non-essential” shops in Dec and – maybe – bars/restaurants for Xmas. (Stirring up the virus again? Sigh)
4/10

In theory, the death rate should start to fall in the next week or so, reflecting the slowing intake into ICU over the last fortnight. I’ve crunched the stats for a 7-day bloc as usual (because one day numbers are often misleading). 5/10

There were 4,871 acute cases in France last night, compared to 4,903 the day before, according to govt figures. In the last week the increase in IC population has averaged 55.33 beds a day, compared to 137.29 last week and 135.3 the week before. gouvernement.fr/info-coronavir…

6/10

New cases in the last week have averaged 29,413 a day – the lowest for three weeks. Last week - 53,344. Previous weekly averages 42,985- 38,364 -27,051-20,399-16,035 -12,242 -12,838 -10,520 - 8,630.
It does seem that the curve of the 2nd Wave has flattened and now fallen.
7/10

The death rate is still miserably high, however. Daily C19 deaths in last week have been: 354-932-425-328-1,220-548-270. (Peaks include care home deaths spread over several days).
This makes an av. 582.4 daily deaths. Last week: 488.5. Previous weeks: 416 -345.2 - 236.5..
8/10

There have been 44,246 C19 deaths in France since the pandemic began in March. Almost 25,000 happened in the first 6 weeks in March/April. There been have 12,000+ in the last 6 weeks. The 2nd wave has not, so far, been as deadly as the first. The death rate SHOULD now slow… 9/10

Conclusion: Lock-down, even a messy and partial lockdown like this one, works.
At what price is another question.
Roll-on (and roll-out) the vaccines or vaccines.

10/10

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More from @john_lichfield

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

12 Nov

In 10 mins or so the French PM Jean Castex will say whether there will be any changes in the second half of France’s minimum one month-long Second Lockdown. Some schools to close? Some shops to open? The betting is on “no change”.

This will disappoint/anger owners of “non essential” shops who are desperate to reopen as soon as possible. There may be extra compo for them to soften the pain.

Is lockdown working? There are signs that the activity of the virus is slowing. The R or Reproduction rate – how many people 1 Covid carrier infects – has fallen below 1 (to 0.93) for the first time since early July. The rate of positive tests is also falling – now 19.5%.

Read 15 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

1 Nov

Here is an excellent riposte to some of the wilful or ignorant nonsense from people who should no better accusing Macron of being anti muslim or playing the anti muslim card. Op-ed by a dozen or French muslim leaders praising Macron's approach.
lemonde.fr/idees/article/…

Can't translate the whole thing but it points out that Macron's speech early last month on combating extremist islamist separatism was in no way an attack on Islam.

Here are two extracts translated into English (courtesy of Google Translate.) Will post the whole thing in English if someone can tell me how to link to large chunks of text on Twitter...

Read 15 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

31 Oct

Greek orthodox priest shot twice and seriously injured by a gunman as he was closing his church in Lyons at 4pm this afternoon . Another djihadist attack. Not yet clear.

lefigaro.fr/actualite-fran…

Meant to put a "?" after "another djihadist attack". According to Le Progres, the local paper in Lyon, the priest is in his 40's and was attacked with a sawn-off shotgun.

Priest, who is fighting for his life, named as , Nicolas K., 52. Gunman is described as very tall - 1m 90 or around 6 feet three inches - and "of Mediterranean appearance." Djihadist attack one possibility but also, police say, it's possible that this is NOT an Islamist attack.

Read 4 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

17 Oct

Here is a new, darker Covid update for France. Individual days can be misleading so I crunch stats every 6/7 days. The trend is worrying. Cases are up sharply, including a new 24hr peak over 30,000 on Thurs. More importantly, deaths and acute cases have begun to accelerate. 1/9

The average number of Covid deaths reported daily in the last 7 days was 94.5 – compared to 62.7 the previous week, and 81.7 and 74.7 in the weeks before that. Not an explosion but a significant upward lurch. 2/9

The number of new cases in 24hrs has averaged over 20,000 in the last 7 days – 20,399 to be precise, compared to 16,035 the previous week. Earlier 7-day averages going backwards were 12,242 - 12,838 - 10,520 - 8,630. In early Aug it was 500…a 40-fold in just over 2 months.
3/9

Read 9 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

14 Oct

Emmanuel Macron is about to start a TV interview in which he will announce new anti Covid measures in France. A curfew in big cities including Paris? Maybe but he will probably not use that word.

"We haven't lost control but we are in a worrying situation," Macron says. "32% of intensive care beds are occupied by Covid patients..." Unlike the first wave, 2nd wave is spread all over the country. There are no unaffected areas where surplus patients can be sent.

Objective is therefore to prevent health service from being overwhelmed. "Curfews are therefore a useful tool..." people will be forbidden to leave home. from 10pm to 6am in greater Paris and string of other métro areas.

Read 17 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

7 Oct

It’s not difficult to catch the present British government in a lie. Here is one to add to the list. It concerns one of my pet subjects – fisheries. Anyone with an intolerance to fish politics should leave here. 1/8

Last week the UK government suggested that an “historic” fishing agreement with Norway was a model for the “annual” agreements that it wishes to impose on EU fleets post-Brexit. It wasn’t. The opposite is true. It was closer to the kind of deal that Brussels is seeking. 2/8

In the D.Tel on 30 Sept, ag/fish minister George Eustice boasted that the UK-Norway Fisheries deal meant "negotiating access to waters and fishing opportunities annually.” This is a cod - misleading to the point of being mendacious. 3/8
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

Read 8 tweets

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