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15 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
My 8th grade daughter (Uma) is writing an essay on the US Constitution for school. Her chosen topic is Federalist 10. Madison's warning about parties (below) is appropriate for our current times.
My daughter's concern is that it seems Madison's solution to factions, giving power to the Union (over the states), doesn't really stop parties and party loyalty.
But she agrees with Madison below: factions at the state level can harm a state, but not multiple states. Her solution (she is naive enough to think it is her solution) is more federalism.
Question for #lawtwitter : Do you think I should complicate her life by telling her about the "California effect"? ;) @ProfEricTalley @DanielJHemel

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More from @anup_malani

Anup Malani Profile picture
15 Nov
THREAD: I've been thinking about what causes the waves of COVID we've been seeing. A common explanation is weather or seasons. Eg, cold weather pushes ppl indoors in close contact. I want to explore another (economic) one: delayed reporting & prevalence response elasticity. 1/24
TLDR: A possible economic explanation for COVID waves, esp hi frequency or quick waves, is a/ delayed info about cases & b/ collective action problems. This explanation is not mutually exclusive w the seasonal explanation. @toxvaerd1 @tylercowen @ATabarrok @arpitrage @nebuer42 2/
It has implications. For science, policy: Plot longer run (months-long) moving averages to see what's happening w COVID. This may affect parameter estimation for epi models. For econ research: take seriously policy endogeneity if using time series to estimate effect of policy. 3/
Read 24 tweets
Anup Malani Profile picture
27 Oct
Thread: sample size calculations by economists.

Economists, esp in dev and health econ, are increasingly doing sample size calcs. It seems weird to do from an economics of info perspective.

Instead of calculating minimum sample size, we should report minimum detectable effect.
Usual sample size calculation requires calculating:

N = f(CI,study design,minimum detectable effect)

where CI is confidence. But economically this is telling you the cost you must incur (N) for a given level of quality (inputs into f, including MDE).
That has economic value, but is not really how studies are done or items are purchased. Consumers don't say, I have to have a car of this quality, just tell me what to spend. They see a vector of (quality, price) pairs & choose pair that maximizes U s.t. their budget constraint.
Read 12 tweets
Anup Malani Profile picture
25 Oct
I want to highlight this MR post by @ATabarrok. It has AFAIK a novel approach to trials that warrants serious discussion: release a drug & randomize access via lottery. Then compare outcome across ppl that won lottery and those who lost. Like the Oregon Health Ins Experiment.
If we do this, we may want to subsidize the price, so that demand for the lottery is high. This may also address ethical issues.

But there are some important issues with this approach. Not all insurmountable. Here is a first cut.
1/Selection. Ppl who are randomized to no access will get other treatment. Some will take nothing, others will take another conventional treatment if available.

But this is a problem with existing trials. I noted an old article on selection into RCTs.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 9 tweets
Anup Malani Profile picture
25 Oct
On the multiple vaccine problem...

@Dereklowe argues that 1st EUA for a COVID vaccine will make it hard to recruit for other vaccine trials. @ht @tylercowen

There's a solution: PAY PARTICIPANTS TO ENROLL. (Thread.) @arpitrage

'The Vaccine Tightrope blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archi…
I modeled & argued this in the 2019 J Human Capital paper below & a 2011 @nberpubs working paper (both w T Philipson).

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…

nber.org/papers/w17011#…
@ATabarrok makes this point & offers more options on Marginal Revolution. marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…

Can Medical Progress be Sustained? Implications of the Link Between Development and Output Markets
Read 25 tweets
Anup Malani Profile picture
18 Oct
Thread: Is the main benefit of a COVID vaccine health or economic activity?

Or: the counter-factual matters. What would we do in the absence of or delay in a vaccine?

Or: Let's replay the lives v. livelihood debate. But think about policy endogeneity. 1/20

@nebuer42 @arpitrage
TLDR: The value of a vaccine, & thus your distribution priorities, depends on the counterfactual. If CF is no/delayed vaccine & *suppression* (eg lockdown), main benefit of vaccine is economic activity. If CF is no/delayed vaccine & *no suppression*, main benefit is health. 2/20
In the former CF, you prioritize the most productive people. In the latter CF, you would prioritize people at greatest risk of health harm from COVID. 3/20

@oziadias @sarahcobey @maciekboni @pritika13 @sidrup @tylercowen @ATabarrok @neelkanthmishra
Read 20 tweets
Anup Malani Profile picture
10 Apr
CAN YOU HELP SLUMS WITH HANDWASHING?
This is an urgent request form NGOs working to stop COVID in Indian slums. Details of problem in THREAD. Summary: we need solution that slums can implement themselves w/ reused water. Please retweet to increase eyeballs. 1/
@vandanagoyal01
Handwashing requires water & soap. Both are in short supply in slums cuz they usually don't have water pipes. Govt sometimes sent water tankers, but those have slowed. 2/
@adamschilton @tariqthachil @adam_m_auerbach
We can't create new handwashing stations. This takes time to scale w/o a lockdown. With India's 21 day lockdown, definitely cannot ship them there. Plus, they require water. 3/
@pritika13 @nebuer42
Read 10 tweets

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