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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
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16 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The usual Sunday/ Monday warning about data lag.

🦠 21,262 cases. Processing down over the weekend.

⚰️⚰️ 213 (28 day cut off) deaths
(2909 the last 7 days. 415.5 each day average)

🏥 admissions 1843 on last full day - Thursday 12th )

🛌 IN hospital likely c15,750
Looking at cases by specimen date (ie date swabbed).

🦠. Ignoring the last couple of days (due to processing lag) we can now see there was one day last week with nearly 31k cases and two days with over 27k).

It is quite likely cases for 12th & 13th still to be processed.
The reason I think that over 15.7k patients IN hospital is I took the most recent data from each country. That is 15,789.

Not far off 16000.

And we are not even in winter & main flu season yet.

On top of ordinary work.
Here is @JoePajak ‘s chart which shows where we have come from and the direction of travel.

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More from @fascinatorfun

Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
18 Nov
Great interview with the prescient @larrybrilliant

Talking about “the best of times” in Covid..the speed with which scientists have been able to move on vaccines, treatment trials and tests when backed well.

The worst of times : “The virus creates a disease that is godawful”
The beat of times. It truly is an extraordinary thing to produce likely effective vaccines at such speed, let alone the huge numbers in the pipeline...AND get them under production.

Human beings at their best working efficiently, carefully and hugely productively Image
“Best” dammit.
Read 4 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
18 Nov
No partisan divide in willingness to wear masks in the UK | LSE Covid-19

A vast majority of the British public – 87% – now say they are “very” or “quite” willing and only a tiny minority (3%) said they are “very unwilling” to wear one.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2020/1…
Looks as if Toby Young, Fox and fellow Twits are a tiny minority getting disproportionate coverage.

Let’s ignore them

All political parties willing to wear them Image
Labour and Lib Dem v close with a preponderance willing to do so to protect others. That might have more to do with the question and also access to good information. Perfectly OK to wear it to protect self AND others.

Tories still score high on each reason Image
Read 5 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
18 Nov
PPE suppliers with political ties given 'high-priority' status, report reveals | Politics | The Guardian
theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Of the 493 suppliers referred to the scheme by a political or official contact, details of the individual who made the reference were recorded in the government’s case management system in fewer than half of cases.

BUT Over 200 clearly referred by MPs/ House of Lords Image
“Around 10% of the suppliers referred to the high-priority channel by a political contact were awarded a PPE contract, the NAO reported. Suppliers without such links, by contrast, had only a 1% chance of winning a contract (104 out of 14,892).”
Read 6 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
17 Nov
🦠🦠20,051 new cases but processing down. Expect the Monday home test swabbing catch up to start hitting cases from tomorrow/ Friday.

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 598 (28 day cut off) deaths ⬆️⬆️. Catching up on weekend lag.

🛌 It is clear we now have over 16k IN hospital. (15,919 without NI) Image
On deaths. 63,871 Covid certified deaths with AT LEAST an additional 2,634 deaths (counting by date of death) since ONS last reporting date (6th November).

In reality likely c 1k more than that due to reporting lag Image
But I echo @ChrisGiles_

“We should recognise that Covid-19 is linked to around 75,000 UK deaths since mid March, not the wholly fictious government number of 52,147

@BBCNews and others should stop using that figure.
Read 5 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
17 Nov
Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Of the deaths registered in Week 45, 1,937 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", accounting for 16.4% of all deaths in England and Wales;
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
1,937 Deaths registered in Week 45, mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", accounting for 16.4% of all deaths in England & Wales; this is an increase of 558 deaths compared with Week 44 (when there were 1,379 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 12.7% of all deaths)
And, no, it isn’t “just ‘flu.”

“Of the 1,937 deaths that involved COVID-19, 1,743 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (90.0%); of the 2,267 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 307 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (13.5%)”
Read 10 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
16 Nov
@Channel4 #Dispatches in Randox labs is quite something.

Basic SOPS (standard operating procedures) not in place. Leaking samples
Not adequately separated
Not upright

I am astonished
Who, apart from Dido Harding inspected this operation who has specialised lab QA background?
Randox “reported” a problem to T&T re “red top” tubes leaking in particular.

To whom exactly? How often? Where is the incident log? There must be one in a well run lab.

How were these samples tracked? And corrected with a retest of the individual? Protocol?
When was the Incident log inspected? How often? By whom?

What about the absence of reported incidence.

(In well run labs there will be incidents. Absence of incednce reporting is a bad sign, not a good one).

When was a Serious Untoward Incident called? Root cause analysis?
Read 5 tweets

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