THREAD: Biden doing a call with business and labor leaders on COVID recovery + his speech today positioned to push Congress to do SOMETHING on COVID.
He is making it clear business leaders, labor leaders and government CAN and must work together to get to the other side.
Meanwhile: Trump ignoring/denying the reality of COVID increases COVID fatigue and American’s unwillingness to adhere to protocols.
+ Congress is making no headway while small businesses panic and/or fight back against state and local restrictions.
But even without more restrictions in place, small biz is in PERIL – why?
Because America is sick & getting sicker. We are not out holiday shopping, celebrating or socializing in a way that can/will keep small businesses alive. And if we do, the spread of COVID will only worsen.
YES, the stock market is soaring on the fantastic news of ANOTHER vaccine advancement from Moderna.
But the markets are forward-looking...looking towards the days when we can resume normal life and pump our increased (work from home-induced) savings into the economy.
Until then, we remain home – some Americans unemployed and not spending because they have nothing to spend.
Others are home, not spending because it is not safe to resume normal activity.
In either scenario, our local businesses and economies are suffering and many may die out before Biden takes office or Congress takes action.
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THREAD: What are we seeing so far from voters and their economic concerns?
SENIORS: Trump holding an edge
- given strong stock market performance & threatening “you’ll lose your 401k w/o me,” seniors care about retirement savings staying in tact
- heavy unemployment/need for stimulus less relevant
THE LATINO VOTE: We’re seeing Latinos putting economy as top priority
- A reminder that immigration is not the only issue — it’s not even #1
- Latinos are the fastest growing demographic of small biz owners & entrepreneurs. Deregulation and taxes are a major focus
THREAD: Dow is down 650 – WHY? Because of COVID resurgence.
Travel/leisure/hospitality – any industries that would be adversely impacted by additional lock downs & restrictions are getting hit the hardest.
Earnings have been improving – with expectations of strong GDP coming Thursday (strong GDP # is positive, but remember - we were under broad shut down mandates in Q2)
As we look at stocks tumble & Covid #'s rise, it is a key reminder that the economic recovery is 100% linked to the actual pandemic recovery.
Let’s break down the economic points President Trump made last night and explain why the false claims aren’t true.
Arguing that $400M isn’t much, his debt is just a bunch of mortgages on beautiful properties, saying he doesn’t owe $ to foreign entities, touting a V shaped recovery, companies are pouring back into U.S., that lenders asked him to borrow from them as a favor to them...
(CONT’D)
...saying he built the greatest economy ever...
THREAD: It's time for another fact check. We're going to dig a little deeper into President Trump's messaging yesterday, where he essentially started tweeting: "Your 401k will be gone without me."
After Trump said this and the markets shot up, the White House and others tried to say it was because Trump was getting better.
That argument failed...markets were up on news of stimulus getting closer and they have tanked on the news that Trump pulled the deal.
The “he’s the economy guy” argument is growing weaker as small businesses face permanent closure without a relief bill extending more support.
Big businesses knows they will get hurt if consumers have less to spend (which they will without stimulus).
THREAD: Comments by Fed Chair Jay Powell Are worth noting.
Despite all the Fed has done to keep markets afloat, he is very clearly urging Congress and the White House to save the real economy.
🚨THIS IS A “The Economy Is In Trouble” RED FLAG 🚨
This is very out of step for the Fed: an independent government agency that traditionally focuses on the financial system, not the economy.
Chairman Powell noted the inequalities in impact and recovery when discussing the economic developments and challenges ahead.
Powell said: “The burdens of the downturn have not been evenly shared. The initial job losses fell most heavily on lower-wage workers in service industries facing the public: job categories in which minorities & women are overrepresented."