yeee $SE Q3 earnings tomorrow at 4:30am PT (lol). i'm planning to listen/live-tweet again! Not much to report here with respect to pre-earnings thoughts:
I think we will see Free Fire continue to do incredibly well. It was the third most downloaded mobile game in September globally (per sensor tower), and geopolitical tension in India with Chinese publishers could further prop it up in Q3. we may see some Q's from analysts
about how they monetize / if it's sustainable to do so.
I don't imagine we will see anything crazy from Garena revenue - the big areas of interest for me are Shopee and SeaMoney. seems like the consensus is to expect pretty steep costs with growing both of these products
I think it's possible we will see some revenue pullback as areas went out of lockdown to some degree in Q3. (However, worth noting that Vietnam had only one quick/short lockdown - and, according to the Q2 call, their numbers weren't meaningfully affected)
$SE is coming up on/hitting a lot of the official analyst price targets. as always, I expect the stock to continue to be volatile. it's hard to "WOW" wallstreet over and over again when you're already getting a lot of hype
also if anyone messages me asking if I'm "still holding" $SE i will lose my mind 😂
it is a long-term hold for me. i follow earnings calls but they are one piece of a large puzzle!
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(STOP ASKING ME IF I SLEPT THROUGH MY ALARM, DO U HAVE NO FAITH IN ME i'm slow at typing 😂😂😂😂)
:) TLDR - nothing too eventful, stock is mostly flat.
Total GAAP rev was $1.2 billion, up 99% YoY (close to expectations)
EPS -0.69 vs expected -0.55
Adj EBITDA $120.4mm (positive due to Garena)
they raised full year 2020 guidance for Shopee and Garena 🎉
Garena (mostly Free Fire):
- bookings was $944.7mm, up 110% YoY
- GAAP revenue was $618.7mm
- QAU was 572.4mm, up 78% YoY
- QPU was 65.3mm, up 124% YoY
I have been a shareholder since IPO day and it is one of my favorite companies. i am planning to hold for an additional 9 years min 😎
they missed on rev today which sent stock down ~22% after hours
i am expecting it to continue to be v volatile
These were the major forces that affected the decrease:
(1) covid stockpiling in Q2 - ppl buying $BYND products and leaving them in the freezer (I know personally that my fiance and i did exactly this lol) (2) covid menu streamlining among QSRs - lead to fewer $BYND options
There were many Q's about the McPlant fiasco. It sounds like investor relations / comms did not communicate well. It is still unclear what $BYND's role is here, but Ethan made it clear that it was heading in the right direction. He said he couldn't really speak for $MCD.
Some interesting moments from the $MELI Q2 earnings call this morning. Mercado Libre was founded in 1999 and continues to operate one of the largest ecomm platforms across South America -->
They have been testing a new take rate structure across a few test countries. The goal is to better match fees with the economics of different categories, which will hopefully drive more merchants to want to list.
$MELI is raising take rates on categories where merchants have higher margins, and lowering them on categories where merchants have lower margins - but overall, they are trying to do this in a way that is neutral against the overall system.
since I covered $FSLY's earnings call yesterday, I wanted to also cover $NET's today. recap of Cloudflare's Q2 -->
$100mm rev, up 48% YOY
Large customers up 60+% YOY
Have 16% of Fortune 1000, up 13% since Q1
Stock currently ~flat after hours
Substantially grew large customer accounts (accounts greater than 100k annualized rev), big increase due to covid
Mkt cap ~$12.5 bil (vs $FSLY ~$9bil)
They were concerned about customer concessions going into Covid-19. But it turns out that concessions peaked in early April and ultimately came in well below forecasts. They feel they have clear vis into the pandemic's effect on biz, and they are raising Q3 and annual guidance
live tweeting the @STcom interview with $SE founder/CEO Forrest Li here 😎
Q: why did you decide to focus on SE esia?
forrest: i followed my wife here. and then i met a lot of friends here and that's how we got started
Q: tell us about the early days
FL: we didn't have an easy start, and it was right after the global financial crisis. we talked to a lot of VCs in SV, but they said they will only invest in a company they can drive to in 30 minutes.