I talked to @kairyssdal@Marketplace about misplaced concern over #austerity—and why handwringing about deficits now will prolong the economic suffering of millions of Americans.
The risk of doing too little to support families & businesses will far outweigh the risk of doing too much
We need to continue to pump money into the economy if we are going to avoid a coronavirus recession that makes the Great Recession a fond memory heatherboushey.medium.com/beware-of-aust… 2/
The premature pullback in government support during the Great Recession is why it took a full decade to return to pre-crisis unemployment rates.
As the past decade has shown, austerity was not the answer then, and it surely is not now. epi.org/publication/wh… 3/
And as @bencasselman & @jeannasmialek explain, "The consequences of another slow recovery would almost certainly fall disproportionately on low-income families, many of them Black and Hispanic.” nytimes.com/2020/09/24/bus… 4/
The fact is that the federal government does not work the same way family budgets work.
The federal government can borrow, and with interest rates at historic lows, the cost of paying back any borrowing we do today will be much lower. brookings.edu/research/feder… 5/
There was a need for substantially greater public spending before any of us ever heard of the coronavirus: to address pervasive economic inequality, to invest in human, physical, and intellectual capital. That need will be even greater in the virus’s wake. 6/
Government spending during a recession needs to be like turning into a skid: "When your tax revenue is falling, you need to pick up the spending.” /end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Our economy is in trouble. Why? The virus has roared back. With COVID-19 cases again overwhelming hospitals, leaders across the country are, for the sake of us all, limiting large gatherings and activities that cause the disease to spread – like indoor dining. 1/8
The fact that the United States has failed to contain the virus means that millions of esp small biz & workers will (again) see their incomes fall & livelihoods potentially destroyed. Congress must put together a robust relief plan to support communities through this crisis. 2/8
New employment data -- some quick reactions ... 1/n
From the BLS Commissioner's Report: "Employment in public- and private-sector education declined in September [relative to August]. In the public sector, employment in education fell by 49,000 in state government and by 231,000 in local government." bls.gov/news.release/j…
Ah ... I should start w/the headline: The economy added 661,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent. We are still down 10.7 million jobs relative to February, before the pandemic hit the USA. 3/n
I kick off my book Unbound with one of the slogans of the labor movement: For the Many, Not The Few. I was able to get the good education that enabled me to write this because my father was a member of @IAM751@MachinistsUnion, who fought like hell for their members. 2/10
In the 2000s, I was honored to serve as president of @NonprofitUnion, where we organized think-tank workers. That local now represents @EGLaborUnion. We recognized the union by card check, so staff would not be subjected to Trump’s anti-worker NLRB. epi.org/blog/the-trump… 3/10
Let’s be clear: We need to provide relief to families and small- and medium-sized businesses hit hard by the closures caused by the pandemic. We must ensure relief goes to communities of color hit so hard by this crisis. The way to do this is to borrow at today's low rates 1/18
Unemployment remains in double-digits. & the official rate a likely under-estimate. “True” unemp rate for July closer to 13.8% than the reported 10.2% b/c of misclassification due to pandemic, while rates remain very high for Black & Latino workers
Yet, the Administration is asleep at the wheel. Enhanced unemployment benefits expired in late July. The amount of benefits workers are receiving have fallen off a cliff:
As the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure @BrookingsInst shows, the #coronavirus recession has wiped out years of growth, and were it not for government fiscal stimulus, its effects would have been even worse. brookings.edu/interactives/h… 2/
We are perilously close to something akin to the Depression, and austerity would be catastrophic
Policymakers need to continue to pump money into the economy if we are going to avoid a collapse that makes the Great Recession of 2007–2009 a fond memory prospect.org/economy/beware… 3/
This Friday, BLS will release new data showing how many jobs were gained—or lost—in July. This data is critical for understanding whether the economy is in recovery or if it’s stalling.
The forecasts are mixed.
1/
We expect weak data on the jobs front because of the rise in covid cases across the country, which has led consumers to stay home and policymakers to enforce more social distancing and closures. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
2/
As @ernietedeschi explains in this thread, forecasters looking at new data predict BLS data will show that the economy has either added or shed about 1 million jobs in July