Thread by @Joe_Marshall0

Brexit talks are in the 'tunnel' or final stretch, with rumours of a deal as soon as next week.

But what difference would a deal make?

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Tl,dr: Not much in terms of what needs to be done to prepare, but a big difference for business and future UK-EU relations

1/

In terms of what needs to be done to prepare-not much

The type of deal the Johnson gov has sought means the UK will be leaving the single market + customs union deal or no deal

The UK + EU will apply different reg. regimes and there'll be new customs and reg checks on goods 2/

Businesses need to prepare for big changes in how they trade with and recruit from the EU - most of which will hit in January, deal or no deal.

Selling any deal as a 'victory' while making clear it still involves huge preparations will be difficult for the government 3/

But a deal still matters.

It could streamline (but not avoid) some of the new red tape. A smaller % of goods may be subject to border checks + each side could recognise the other's trusted trader schemes for customs and conformity assessments for goods. 4/

(Although a deal could add its own complexities. Traders would have to comply with complex preferential rules of origin requirements - which involve proving where their goods come from to benefit from 0/reduced tariffs. A large and expensive task for complex manufacturers) 5/

A deal could also prevent most goods being subject to tariffs.

This will be critical for some sectors where high tariffs or complex supply chains leave them very exposed to new tariff costs (which might end up being passed on to consumers) - like agriculture and automotive. 6/

A deal is also critical for road haulage operators.

Without a deal, road hauliers will need to fall back on a restrictive and costly permit system, with only enough permits for around 1/4 of current operators.

A deal could avoid this - but access will still be less than now 7/

Aviation could also be badly hit in a no deal. With no WTO default, flights between the UK + EU would be governed by limited agreements that pre-date the UK's EU membership +could restrict routes flown. In reality, both sides would have to take steps to keep basic connectivity 8/

The politics of a deal also matter, with relations between the UK and EU likely to be better if a deal is reached than not.

9/

Good relations would make it more likely that both sides agree to take unilateral measures to manage traffic disruption at the border, or adopt a light tough approach to enforcement - at least initially - while traders adapt to new rules. Both could make January less bumpy 10/

A deal also makes it more likely that the EU will make favourable decisions on issues separate from, but politically linked to, negotiations- on data (affecting how easy it will be to transfer data EU-UK) and financial services (affecting access to EU markets for UK banks).
11/

A deal could also make the functioning of the Northern Ireland Protocol easier. For instance, a zero tariff deal would make concerns about goods 'at risk' of moving GB-NI-EU tariff-free less pressing and help streamline some of the new agrifood checks that pose major headaches12/

A deal would also provide a basis on which to adapt the UK-EU relationship over time - perhaps allowing greater market access or reductions in red tape to be agreed in future. 13/

Ultimately, the Johnson government's pursuit of a 'thin' deal with the EU means the difference between deal and no deal is far less than under May's plans.

But a deal still matters.

For more - take a look at our @instituteforgov explainer 👇

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/fu…

P.S. A few additional points covered in our explainer+ flagged on twitter that I hadn't included in the thread.

On law + justice - in all scenarios, coop will be less effective than now. But a deal could mitigate by providing limited access to EU databases + better info sharing