What could happen if MPs vote down the government's proposed timetable for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill?
Well, despite the Prime Minister's 'my timetable' or 'election' posturing, the truth is several options are on the table.
Well, despite the Prime Minister's 'my timetable' or 'election' posturing, the truth is several options are on the table.
1. The government decides not to 'pull' (or park) bill and call an early election, as the Prime Minister indicated. Would need
- 2/3 majority in favour or
- A short bill bypassing the 2/3 requirement - but needing to get through all parliamentary stages and risking amendments
- 2/3 majority in favour or
- A short bill bypassing the 2/3 requirement - but needing to get through all parliamentary stages and risking amendments
1(b) - Ironically, calling an election to find a path to pass the deal may take longer than agreeing to give Parliament sufficient time to scrutinise the Bill. The WAB is expected to pass 2nd reading- showing a majority may be found for the bill (but it's a poor proxy for a MV)
2. The government could propose a different programme motion, conceding that the original timetable was too short. Could still try and finish by 31 Oct (but sit Fri-Sun), or accept Parliament wants more than the 10 sitting days available - but would need a short extension. 
3. Proceed with the bill, but rely on alternative procedural techniques to try and pass the bill quickly. But, as @aliceolilly's explainer points out, closure motions and guillotine motions have their own challenges, and would need speaker and MP support instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/tim…
4. Sit tight, and hope that stalling creates sufficient concern about the risk of no deal that the Parliamentary arithmetic shifts.
A key issue is the status of the UK's extension request, and sequencing. MPs are unlikely to vote for an election unless a long extension is given, but may stomach a compromise programme motion if only a short extension is proposed.
As @GeorginaEWright has argued, the EU will be keen not to be seen to be interfering in UK politics. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/uk-reques…
But it's inevitable that how the EU reacts (or doesn't) to the vote tonight will influence how MPs and the Government respond next.
But it's inevitable that how the EU reacts (or doesn't) to the vote tonight will influence how MPs and the Government respond next.
Should be 'decides to pull'
