Thread by @Joe_Marshall0

Quick thread on Saturday in Parliament:
- What the votes mean
- The key parliamentary groupings
- What happens next

First, passing a motion to approve the deal is only step 1 of the process. If passed, it will do 2 things:
1. Remove the Benn Act requirement to request an extension
2. Pave the way for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) to put the international agreement into domestic law 2/

But getting approval will be difficult.
- The Government is over 40 seats short of a majority 3/

And the Government will have to convince more MPs to back Johnson's deal than ever backed May's. On the MV, the gov was 58 votes short. 4/

We know how most MPs will probably vote. Lab/Lib Dem/SNP against, Cons for. But there are 4 key groups that will decide the outcome:
- DUP
- Labour waverers
- Conservative 'rebels'
- ERG
5/

The DUP may abstain, but predicting how they and others will vote it very difficult, there are many moving parts. Not all of these groups are single entities. e.g. some Tory rebels are pro ref (Greening), whereas others (Gauke/Letwin) would prefer a deal

6/

The different groups are also concerned about different things. For the DUP, the NI provisions are key. For Labour waverers its about the political declaration. Some groups may take their cue from others- e.g. members of the ERG from the DUP

7/

MPs are not just concerned about the merits of a deal. Personal politics are also in play. Tory rebels may see voting for a deal as a way back into the Tory fold, whereas Labour MPs could risk losing the whip if they vote for the deal. MPs are genuinely torn on how to vote.

8/

A lot will depend on whether the Gov can maintain sufficient momentum to convince wavering MPs that the deal will pass and so it is worth the political cost to vote for the deal.

9/

There are other hurdles on Saturday too. The motion can be amended - potentially to call for a referendum or extension. The Speaker may accept manuscript amendments. But if the motion is amended, it won't satisfy the EUWA requirements. 10/

If the motion doesn't pass, and MPs don't pass a motion to approve leaving without a deal, then the Benn Act requirements stand, and the PM will have to request an extension under the terms of the Act. But the EU would need to agree. 11/

Even if the MV is passed, the Government cannot ratify the Withdrawal Agreement until the WAB is passed. Passing the WAB will be difficult
12/

Maintaining parliamentary support will be hard.

The government will need to maintain a fragile parliamentary majority through multiple votes and parliamentary stages, and face the Lords. MPs and Peers haven't seen the bill, and some of it could be unwelcome.

13/

There is little time:

The Benn Act shows leg can be passed quickly. But the WAB is much more complex. There is only a ~10 day window. In contrast, the Withdrawal Agreement took 273 hours in Parliament.

14/

There could be tricky amendments, the Lisbon Treaty bill faced 88 amds.

Amds take time and nmbrs to fend off. MPs and Peers could try to tie the gov's hand on the future relationship and Parl's role in it. Some amds could damage the bill and put the EU Parl off ratification

15/

And if the WAB doesn't pass- the UK could be set to leave without a deal on 31st. The Benn Act requirement would not apply, and unless the gov changed tact, or MPs manage to legislate to force the gov's hand or demand revocation, no deal is still on the table.

16/

Plus, there are further votes on the Queen's Speech early next week. Loss could potentially lead to a VoNC or a 2/3 vote for an early election. In any case, the minority gov will struggle to make progress on leg., and under current parli rules find it hard to pass a budget 17/

In conclusion- Saturday is important and pivotal, but certainly not the end of the Parliamentary drama over Brexit. 18/