@benmsanderson I guess it depends who the user is.
If it is just an academic exercise, then assuming this & that, to find what happens to coal is fine. This will also vary by model, given assumptions.
SSP2-45 from 6 models, very different answers... Academically interesting.
1/
If it is just an academic exercise, then assuming this & that, to find what happens to coal is fine. This will also vary by model, given assumptions.
SSP2-45 from 6 models, very different answers... Academically interesting.
1/
@benmsanderson If I am a user, what do I do with that spread? Same socioeconomics, same effective climate policy, completely different outcomes (SSP is sort of current trends continue). Coal could rise or decline... Which may be true, but one would want to dig deeper...
2/
2/
@benmsanderson Of course, every other year the path looking forward may differ depending on events, so need to redo scenarios again (& again)... But, that is just the way it is.
You can do scenarios which include current policies, I have not plotted those here.
3/
You can do scenarios which include current policies, I have not plotted those here.
3/
@benmsanderson Basically, are the types of scenarios in the literature any use to users? Of course, it will depend on the user. Or do we need different types of scenarios? To what degree would you expect scenarios to continue with current trends in the short term?
(am I making sense?)
4/4
(am I making sense?)
4/4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
