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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

13 Nov

You just have to say WTF when you watch the Republicans calling Hilary Clinton and Democrats "sore losers" for not accepting the 2016 election the evening of election results. Actually, Hilary Clinton conceded to Trump the day after the election.

Here are the responses four years ago
Today most Republicans, by not accepting the election results, are undermining the system and playing games with national security.
Look at what leading Republicans said four years ago...
cnn.com/2020/11/11/pol…

@realDonaldTrump

Instead of working for a peaceful transition of power @realDonaldTrump et al are acting like fools as they complain unsubstantiated voter fraud. Rather Trump is preventing the President Elect from getting national security briefings - as he begins pre-production of

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

11 Nov

To Josh Brown - Totally and respectfully disagree.
To begin with, banks have extraordinary low/zero cost deposit bases (trillion dollar gain y/o/y) that will increase in value dramatically as interest rates inevitably rise. The largest banks, like $JPM,

have spent many billions of dollars to advance their technological advantage. They are benefitting from market share gains from non US (esp. European banks) who are the "walking dead." Despite record provisioning and zero interest rates, the large banks will increase

@WilfredFrost

their tangible net worth this year over 2019. Banks have large excess capital positions, historically high liquidity - in the fullness of time they will be able to buyback stock (accretively). Many more reasons - just touched the iceberg. @WilfredFrost @SaraEisen

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

10 Nov

@realmoney

@realmoney
My Six Month Tactical Approach to the Markets Remains The Same

On October 22nd I outlined, "Some Investment Themes to Consider Over the Next Few Months."

Let's revisit the column:

As you map out your strategy for year-end and for 2021, here are some themes to

consider:

* Short Fixed Income: Bonds are among the most risky and least efficiently priced asset classes extant. The 10 year note yield is about to break to the upside (of its 200 day moving average) - the 30 year yield already has. A large, Democratic-led February stimulus

package could be a catalyst for the 10 year US note to climb over 1% in the near term. (I would note that TLT peaked at $172 in early August and is now trading at $155)

* Short Homebuilders: The sector is negatively influenced by the rate of change in bond yields. With mortgage

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

10 Nov

@realmoney

Coming up on @realmoney

The Thunder in South Florida Yesterday Was Not the Bad Weather - It Was The Sound of the Market's Pivot From Growth To Value
* Yesterday may have represented a classic "sell on the good news"
* Monday was also an example why unemotional

trading/investing is so important
* Some stocks and sectors had a great year yesterday
* While many were cheering about the vaccine news, I was waiting to sell (with red tickets in hand)
* On Monday I moved from large net long to small net short - it was the biggest daily

@jimcramer

swing in my aggregate net exposure in years
* Given the market's pivot, it may be time to consider a Berkshire Hathaway long @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

9 Nov

@realmoney

Important (at least to me!)... on @realmoney
A Classic Sell On The News?
* It might have been!
* My actions today were as extreme (going from large net long in exposure to small net short) as in any one trading session in several years
* More on "Group Stink"
The comfort of

the crowd, herd and consensus, as I noted in this morning's opening missive,"The Rip Your Face Apart Rally and Mother of All Short Squeezes Will Likely Continue - 'Get It While You Can'" realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di… often produces the foul odor of "Group Stink."

" It takes nothing

to join the crowd. It takes everything to stand alone, and to buy when others are selling, and sell when others are buying."

I was struck by the near unanimity on FIN TV - with the DJIA exploding by over 1600 points this morning - that the market now has a "green light" to

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

9 Nov

@realmoney

@realmoney
Today's Trades
* Moved to small net long in exposure!
* Reward v risk has deteriorated as today's market move borrows from future gains
* A classic sell on the news opportunity?

* Established a $SPY short hedge (between medium and large sized) at $363-$365

* Sold half of my $ GM long over $39/share - as reward v risk has changed from a month ago when shares were close to $30. (Twice our 'Trade of the Week' in last few weeks)
*$DIS Disney is +$15.80/share and I just halved the position to medium sized
* I have reduced $GS to medum

sized and $MS to small sized
* Covered small sized shorts in $ZM, $AAPL, $SQ and $CVNA
* Reduced value ETFs from very large to medium sized ($VTV and $VBR)
* Pressing my expanding homebuilder shorts
* Reduced $GLD to medium sized in premarket trading

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