Thread by @kakape

“None of these scenarios are palatable.”
This assessment of #covid19 scenarios for the next months by SPI-M-O, one of the groups advising UK government, is really interesting. I wish public communication was this candid and consistently so.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

It dismisses 3 scenarios as implausible without vaccine roll-out/therapeutics:
⁃eradication
⁃shielding high-risk groups while building up herd immunity
⁃“managed epidemic”, with little or no government interventions or behaviour change but little damage to economy or health

It also states clearly that “any economic evaluations of interventions should not be compared to a “COVID-free” world, as each of the scenarios have substantial economic implications.”

Then it walks through the consequences of the four scenarios in terms of health impacts, economic impacts, implications for holidays and vaccination. This is of course just a very rough analysis of implications, but this is how we should be talking about scenarios.

You’re probably all tired of me saying this, but European countries really need to think (and talk!) more about their #covid19 strategies.
This is public health 101.
People are generally more willing to go along with you if you tell them where you are going and why...

As I wrote earlier this month: Not making a decision probably leads to intermittent lockdowns as a default. As @AdamJKucharski told me then: “These circuit breakers are almost kicking the problem down the road.”
sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/e…