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Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
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17 Nov, 8 tweets, 3 min read
To get to #COVIDzero we need to look at Slovakia. Over two weekends, they brought their numbers crashing down, from an R0 of 1.47 to 0.62 in just two weeks Thread ->
How did they do it?
- They used two rapid tests from South Korea (Rapigen and SD Biosensor)
- They tested everyone between 10-65 twice over Oct 30-Nov 1, and Nov 6-8.
- Positive tests were isolated for 10 days.
- Untested citizens isolated for 10 days
Impressively, they mobilized 5000 eight-person teams, composed of health care workers, military medics and others.
They used polling stations as makeshift testing centres.
Results were available in 15 minutes
This way, they were able to test 3.6m out of 5.4m total population.
There's no place else in the world that's been able to achieve this in such a short amount of time. They found and isolated 38359 people, 1% of the population.

Source: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co…
How can we do this quickly in Canada?
1) Approve and purchase rapid tests approved in EU and other adv countries
2) Do a trial run. Brampton would be ideal given rising #'s
3) Scramble and organize teams, use the two most capable federal orgs, the military and Elections Canada
Some reading:
ft.com/content/6d2000…

thelancet.com/journals/lance…
If there's anything that has a chance to save the holidays, its a strategy involving rapid testing.
A perspective from someone with lots of elections experience:

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More from @KashPrime

Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
15 Nov
I and #Masks4Canada are joining with many across the country in advocating for #CovidZero, the elimination of Covid-19 from our communities. I once thought this idea impossible, but watching Melbourne, Halifax and the rest of the Atlantic do it has been inspiring. Thread ->
This is likely the only way we’ll be able to save many lives, businesses and to return to some semblance of a normal life before vaccines are rolled out. Watching the US and Europe go through wrenching spikes and lockdowns is instructive. We can avoid their fate.
First, we need to aim for zero. Lockdowns are coming in parts of the country, which are futile until leaks in our system are plugged. Including:
- Locking down the US border (for real this time)
- Setting regional bubbles
- Bring in the Australian mandatory quarantine system
Read 11 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
4 Nov
How do we prevent US style polarization from wrecking Canada?

Already here we are seeing signs of populist echo chambers, fueled by new right-wing news sources and through private Facebook groups.
Like it or not, the US election was far closer than expected, especially given Trump’s missteps on Covid19 and ethical and many other lapses. Exit polls of his voters consistently showed that law and order as well as economic issues were their main concerns.
Hidden Tribes breaks the electorate into a number of camps. What’s interesting is the centre-left and centre-right folks form a silent majority. It’s extremists on the fringes who drive polarization, and the same is happening here.
hiddentribes.us
Read 9 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
4 Nov
Many of you are undoubtedly shocked by the election outcome tonight. Our American neighbours will endure 4 more years of brash, incompetent populism.

Can it happen in Canada?

I couldn't sleep, so here I’ll list reasons how I think we can avoid a similar outcome
The rot that takes place with the loss of democratic norms requires a society to be in great distress, like hyperinflation in Germany in the 1930s. A well functioning government anticipates and cares for its citizens and heads off these crises through shared action.
Firstly, our government is much better run. A strong civil service was able to roll out funding during the Corona lockdown in record time. We have non partisan judges, who issue perfectly bland rulings. Hardly anyone here would be able to name a judge on the supreme court
Read 10 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
3 Nov
Great to hear that the Ontario government is going to adopt clear metrics on when to open and close regions. This will keep politics to a minimum, especially now that things may have started to turn around in parts of the province.
R = 1.04, but growth is still happening in some of the restricted regions, particularly in Peel region
And Ontario has the lowest active case count per capita outside of the Atlantic bubble

Read 5 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
2 Nov
There’s talk in Ontario of relaxing restrictions on restaurants and gyms, which were responsible for 40% of cases that could be traced in TO. Here are economic reasons of why this is a terrible idea, especially when much of Europe and the US is falling apart

Thread:
Ontario and Quebec are doing fairly well since imposing restrictions; growth in cases has been linear, not exponential, and hospitals have not been overwhelmed. If we can live with ~1000 cases and 10 deaths per day in Ontario, that is.
If you look at economic data from StatsCan, the economy contracted by ~15% during the peak of the first lockdown in March/April, and has largely bounced back to normal in the last few months
www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
Read 6 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
7 Oct
Wanted to build on this media piece with some background and concrete steps that we can take to start protecting the most vulnerable communities in our big cities. Thread:
Many of us in health care are very appreciative of all the things @fordnation has done to keep us safe. Unlike the US very few health care workers have gotten sick, and hopefully will stay that way. He listened to us at @conquercovid19 in March and got things done.
To his credit, Ford is also one of the only premiers who has kept pushing for rapid tests, the rapid PCR and rapid antigen tests, and his constant pressure at the federal level, I think was instrumental in them getting approved this week. cbc.ca/news/politics/…
Read 13 tweets

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