Thread by @famulare_mike

The recent explosion in #COVID19 cases and rising hospitalizations in WA is due to increasing prevalence in the community. Here's what we know about how many people are infected and what it means for your risk at Thanksgiving and other gatherings.

From cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, we use math modeling to estimate the number of people infected – the prevalence – in WA over time. Prevalence is rising quickly, roughly equal to the March peak as of Nov 6, and will hit 1% by Thanksgiving if we don’t stop it.

What does 1% prevalence in WA on Thanksgiving Day mean? 76 thousand people with COVID. Between 25 to 40 thousand people who won’t yet know they are sick bringing #COVID19 to dinner. 450 people carrying infections on Thanksgiving Day alone that will be dead by New Year’s.

If 1% - 1 in 100 - sounds low to you, I ask how big is your group? Each person adds more risk. On average in WA, if you have dinner with 15 people, the risk of at least one bringing COVID is around 15% - 1 in 6. The same odds of catching a bullet in Russian roulette.

Maybe your group is extra safe. Hopefully our estimate will prove too pessimistic. But 25-40 thousand will likely have COVID on Thanksgiving and not yet know it. Only by quarantining for 14 days beforehand can you be sure you aren't one of them.

If you and your contacts haven’t quarantined and must still get together, bundle up and stay outside. Mask up, even at the table except when physically impossible. Clear out the room, open the windows, turn on the fan. Come only for dessert and don’t stay too long.

Thanksgiving isn't special in this regard. The same considerations always apply until we’re all vaccinated and can move on from this waking nightmare. The bigger the group, and more often they meet, the bigger the risk.

If we change our behavior to stop transmission as effectively as we did in late March, we can turn this around and avoid record-shattering hospitalization, death, and chronic #LongCovid .

This is why we need to make changes again. Close high-risk commercial settings even though that causes economic distress. Eliminate social gatherings with people outside our homes when we can and always take safety measures when we can’t, even when they feel awkward.

It’s in our control. Stay apart. Quarantine beforehand if you must gather. Always mask. Stay outside. Ventilate. Discuss risk beforehand to get past feeling shy about safety. We have the power to save lives this Thanksgiving and every day to come.

Thanks to @niket_h_thakkar for leading the modeling and our colleagues at @WADeptHealth for data support and discussion on all things WA COVID epi. h/t @trvrb @nataliexdean, @dr_izzo and #epitwitter for sci-comm inspiration!