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18 Nov, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Plausible. Not certain, but not in any way unthinkable.
The more optimistic sage.
Reminder of what the Brexit ultras are saying (though you wonder where they're proposing to sell this fish...)

Balanced view.

There is something odd about briefing there is going to be (or not) a breakthrough in five days time. Preparing the ground or pressuring the other side? All still smoke and mirrors.
Absolutely blunt. Had thought the fear of lost manufacturing would by now have tipped the scales of the PM's EU decision, but not yet, perhaps encouraged by some red wall MPs who don't seem to have made the link.
Ambassadors. Not I think the people you go to when there is a deal imminent. So would think this is the EU decision making process, can we go for a deal, is fish sorted, is it time to walk, what is the latest date etc? Is there a UK equivalent?
In case you were wondering if the ERG would soften their view to make the PMs EU deal decision easier
"No reason for optimism" "final push" "nowhere near" - seems as I thought earlier in the week that both sides are using journalists to say they are not moving and the other side must do so. This is, at this stage of talks, somewhat suboptimal.
I can't see how EU and UK negotiators get to a deal short of an external intervention. Five months of going round the same circles as far as we can tell.
EU folk starting to think no-deal is the likeliest outcome

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
19 Nov
I fear this is correct. Though with a lot of blame-shifting by participants. Think whoever decided to brand normal contents of a trade agreement a threat to UK sovereignty if included in an EU trade deal deserves particular blame. Similarly those misleading about NI Protocol.
Would also love to know what the UK negotiators' plan was to overcome internal opposition from the ERG. If it was "we'll get a deal they will be fine with" then there was a fatal flaw at the start making negotiations largely pointless.
Also if the plan of the UK side was that the EU would suddenly yield at the last minute, then it wasn't strong to start with, and failed to take account of the chances a genuine EU-crisis emerged (always likely, there are several each year) dw.com/en/hungary-pol…
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Nov
When thinking about Global Britain, the real not pretend one, I tend to start with our openness to inward movement of people and capital, and the threats to these.

Wanting more exports doesn't make you a supporter of free trade. If that's the emphasis, probably the opposite.
Global Britain after a referendum won by appealing to protectionism was always going to be a stretch. Interesting that in both the US and UK the previously pro free trade party is struggling to understand what it thinks about trade.
And while on the theme of free trade and the backlash to it. do keep wondering if one of the most important things we need to do is ensure services production / export is thought as important as goods.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Nov
The significance of next week seemingly being that it is not this week, but not as late as the week after.

Basically EU leaders hoping as they have been for some months that the UK will show realism about the final deal. ft.com/content/542521…
The fundamental problem being this.

(it is worth noting that it is normal in trade talks to declare a deal before all elements are finalised, but when both sides are confident there will be a deal. Clearly they aren't, yet.)
The UK government's language about the deal has not helped. By claiming the EU need for level playing field measures is some kind of desperate attempt to keep the UK under EU law, regardless of the content, it makes it harder to claim victory if such content remains.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
17 Nov
Well this is rather awkward for a UK claiming to want to be a leader of free trade, but recorded in the only global guide of its type as imposing more harmful restrictions on trade than any other G20 country this year.
As I've previously suggested serious trade commentators outside the UK don't take at all seriously the UK government's talk of being a leader of free trade, given we are imposing significant new barriers to trade with the support of supposedly pro free market thinktanks.
Take a look at the difference between an EU deal and no-deal as outlined in this thread. A country that believed in free trade would be going for the deal, knowing that free trade does involve limiting government rights to intervene in markets.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
17 Nov
Odd briefings going on here. The reference to next Tuesday is rather random (the landing zone has been known for weeks) in a story otherwise dominated by naming and shaming Cabinet ministers wanting a deal. Thus looks mostly like blame preparation (for deal or not).
Note the language - "bind Britain to Brussels rules forever". As per yesterday, not the language of a mature consideration of the issues. The negotiation that matters is inside number 10, not with the EU.
This line is also doing the rounds. It demonstrates how badly mangled communications about Free Trade Agreements have been in the UK - they are mostly about reduction of tariffs, not the more important non-tariff barriers. But still better than nothing.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
16 Nov
So, another crucial week in UK-EU talks. Not the first, far from the last. And bluntly, right now we are on course for no deal. Nothing to do with the content outstanding, which is eminently solvable, but the language on both sides. It isn't the language of deals. 1/n
The reported outstanding EU-UK content. Fish, where the outcome is somewhere between the UK having all, and status quo. State Aid, where shared principles have been proposed. Level Playing Field, which we see in all trade deals. And Internal Market Bill / Northern Ireland. 2/
The solutions to outstanding EU / UK content. Fish - splits in various ways. State Aid - UK accept, ultimately not a major constraint. Level Playing Field - similar. Northern Ireland - implement the protocol sensitively as per existing discussions. Easy? Sadly... 3/
Read 22 tweets

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