Odd briefings going on here. The reference to next Tuesday is rather random (the landing zone has been known for weeks) in a story otherwise dominated by naming and shaming Cabinet ministers wanting a deal. Thus looks mostly like blame preparation (for deal or not).
Note the language - "bind Britain to Brussels rules forever". As per yesterday, not the language of a mature consideration of the issues. The negotiation that matters is inside number 10, not with the EU.
This line is also doing the rounds. It demonstrates how badly mangled communications about Free Trade Agreements have been in the UK - they are mostly about reduction of tariffs, not the more important non-tariff barriers. But still better than nothing.
Deal compared to now likely means some loss of manufacturing. No-deal likely means considerable loss to manufacturing. ft.com/content/7c615e…
Constantly worth reminding ourselves there is no trade deal that can be acceptable to both the EU and ERG. Therefore for the UK to go for a deal the PM has to go against Brexit hardliners in his own party. That is right now where the negotiation is at.
And if you are the EU, or a Member State, you want to know of UK negotiators mostly are they prepared to take on their own hardliners. Because no point in significant concessions otherwise.
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The significance of next week seemingly being that it is not this week, but not as late as the week after.
Basically EU leaders hoping as they have been for some months that the UK will show realism about the final deal. ft.com/content/542521…
The fundamental problem being this.
(it is worth noting that it is normal in trade talks to declare a deal before all elements are finalised, but when both sides are confident there will be a deal. Clearly they aren't, yet.)
The UK government's language about the deal has not helped. By claiming the EU need for level playing field measures is some kind of desperate attempt to keep the UK under EU law, regardless of the content, it makes it harder to claim victory if such content remains.
Well this is rather awkward for a UK claiming to want to be a leader of free trade, but recorded in the only global guide of its type as imposing more harmful restrictions on trade than any other G20 country this year.
As I've previously suggested serious trade commentators outside the UK don't take at all seriously the UK government's talk of being a leader of free trade, given we are imposing significant new barriers to trade with the support of supposedly pro free market thinktanks.
Take a look at the difference between an EU deal and no-deal as outlined in this thread. A country that believed in free trade would be going for the deal, knowing that free trade does involve limiting government rights to intervene in markets.
So, another crucial week in UK-EU talks. Not the first, far from the last. And bluntly, right now we are on course for no deal. Nothing to do with the content outstanding, which is eminently solvable, but the language on both sides. It isn't the language of deals. 1/n
The reported outstanding EU-UK content. Fish, where the outcome is somewhere between the UK having all, and status quo. State Aid, where shared principles have been proposed. Level Playing Field, which we see in all trade deals. And Internal Market Bill / Northern Ireland. 2/
The solutions to outstanding EU / UK content. Fish - splits in various ways. State Aid - UK accept, ultimately not a major constraint. Level Playing Field - similar. Northern Ireland - implement the protocol sensitively as per existing discussions. Easy? Sadly... 3/
Disappointed I haven't yet seen a 'Cummings Greatest Hits in government' list, because it really is a fine collection. So let's try to correct this terrible wrong. Tagline - 'Unlike most Greatest Hits you never want to hear these again...'
Never start with the greatest hit, so let's go with Track 1, the algorithm to fix the planning system. Nothing could be more guaranteed to enrage as many Conservative MPs as possible while failing to fix whatever problem it was trying to solve. telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/2…
Track 2, one of my favourites, epic and petulant responses to media articles. Such as "his anonymous source is variously described as a ‘senior adviser to Downing Street’ and a ‘senior Downing Street adviser’. The two things are not the same." healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/res…
Bluntly restating what we already knew. The Internal Market Bill provisions relating to Northern Ireland will cast the UK into international wilderness with the EU and US. Assumed incidentally at the time to be another Cummings tactical masterclass.
How have we got to 6 weeks from the end of the transition period without a decision on future relations with the EU? Well, this seems the likeliest explanation
I think that most of the government and Conservative MPs have no idea of what it will be like to deal / trade with the EU once properly outside. And you can't get that 50% of UK trade back from much further away questions. But don't look to the PM for difficult truths...