This article highlights the absurdity of Acela Corridor journalists who have the memory of a fruit fly repeating inane talking points about US policy towards Europe and allies. Follow me a moment 1/n
politico.eu/article/german…
Germany openly admits they absolutely must have the US security guarantee because other than a handful of boy scouts and launching stale Nutella at invading forces, they have absolutely no capabilities and will not be investing in their security any time soon. 2/n
Not only is it true which admit it, they have refused really since 1989 to do anything but free ride off of the American security guarantee. They insist on running extremely tight fiscal policy all while throwing temper tantrums when the US draws down forces. This isn't new 3/n
What makes this so galling is their ongoing and active work to undermine US security objectives. Nordstream? Huawei? Change through trade? Volkswagen in Xinjiang? Trading with Iran? The list of their active work to undermine US security objectives is long and ongoing 4/n
Germany is a sovereign country and can conduct their foreign and security policy how they see fit, however, the ongoing work to undermine US security objectives while demanding the US continue to subsidize German misadventures is contradictory, hypocritical, and appalling 5/n
The reason this matters to current events is the entire DC unthinking think tank talking point is peace love and unicorns with allies like Germany. Germany hasn't done anything to confront China and still angling for an investment deal. They refuse to work cooperatively on 6/n
Security threats from China to Iran, you name it. It will be very easy to sweep all this under the rug, issue a press release and ignore the obvious. The reality is Germany is not a good partner or ally and is simply a free rider undermining US interests and most every turn 7/n
There are valid criticisms of the public communication strategy of how to approach these issues but there is effectively no debate that the substance are deeply problematic and will not be changed with a different US president. Done.

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More from @BaldingsWorld

29 Oct
So since I have had a couple people send this to me. Let me respond. Couple of things very important to note. First, I wrote a very small part of this report. I stand by the report because I went over it with a fine tooth comb and have known the 1/n
nbcnews.com/tech/security/…
The primary author for nearly a decade. The primary author faces personal and professional risk for outing themselves and I am going to respect that. Too all China focused journalists: there is a not insignificant chance you have dealt with this person. To hear journalists 2/n
Who use anonymous sources all the time was morally superior is disgusting. Second, no one has written about the contents of the paper or found factual fault with anything in the report. That reveals the readers bias not a problem with the report. If there is a factual error 3/n
Read 17 tweets
22 Oct
This is a good question and they're are two ways to approach this. First, we actually have pretty good hard data. In reality, Trump overseas business interests are pretty minimal. His business model for the most part is brand licensing which may or may not be a good thing 1/n
Going forward. From the information we have his income from foreign sources is actually relatively minimal and predates his time as President. Philippines, UAE, India others. Specifically in China, it's not large and he holds no assets I'm aware of. If I'm wrong let me know 3/n
Biden holds a 10% stake in a $6.5b fund turning out $130m a year in fee revenue. That one comparison makes Biden significantly more leveraged in China than Trump. Second, if we turn to potential embarrassing info that China might have on either very difficult to say 4/n
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
I had really not wanted to do this but roughly 2 months ago I was handed a report about Biden activities in China the press has simply refused to cover. I want to strongly emphasize I did not write the report but I know who did. Key points are this: baldingsworld.com/2020/10/22/rep…
Hunter Biden is partnered with the Chinese state. Entire investment partnership is Chinese state money from social security fund to China Development Bank. It is actually a subsidiary of the Bank of China. This is not remotely anything less than a Chinese state funded play 2/n
Though the entire size of the fund cannot be reconstructed, the Taiwanese cofounder who is now detained in China, reports it to be NOT $1-1.5 billion but $6.5 billion. This would make Hunters stake worth at a minimum at least $50 million if he was to sell it. 3/n
Read 9 tweets
20 Oct
This fine report falls victim to one of the most common problems of reports from DC think tanks. Let me start by saying, the recommendations are clear, reasonable, and understandable. Where it fails, like many similar reports, is its lack of realism 1/n cnas.org/publications/r…
Just to take one example from the report, point #2 says "Aim for Coordinated, if Not Common, Policies" with Europe with regards to China. This is a perfectly reasonable and valid position if we are not focused on the reality we must grapple with. So in a way 2/n
I am not critiquing the position at all on the other hand I am saying it is entirely unrealistic. It is only maybe since the beginning of 2020 that Europe has started to take China seriously despite Trump administration efforts across a range of policy domains. Additionally 3/n
Read 7 tweets
18 Oct
I had a non- American non Trump friend message me with this graphic a few days ago. They asked: why does everyone think this is a Biden landslide? Just on polling, this looks almost identical to 2016 leaving aside all those complications.

They are totally right. 1/n
It is easy to conceive of scenarios Biden and Trump both approach 400 EC votes and just as easy to see scenarios it comes down to one state like 2000. I think there are factors that are not being considered but for many reasons they all could mean something or nothing. 2/n
Add in the 2020 complications and real data outliers, advisable to significantly expand variance expectations. Think I'm wrong? Each party is behaving like I'm right. The Biden campaign doesn't enlist Obama, one of their two real campaign planks (other is he is not Trump) 3/n
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
China academic Twitter: I have some China data I would like to put in the right hands. If you are interested, reply under here with some interests or expertise in the replies
When you say it out loud, it sounds completely absurd. However, that is the goal and that is what is slowly happening. Proof is being provided the reality of what China is doing is being revealed. Whether it is universities accepting laundered corrupt proceed funds, 2/n
China monitoring foreigners by the million, or all kinds of other things people don't believe until you confront them with the evidence the tide is turning on China globally though we have a long way to go. Lots of great people from the halls of power are turning this into 3/n
Read 4 tweets

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