2) It’s closer to 3.6 million. The estimate does not include an approximately equal number of latent infections among people who caught the virus in recent days and can’t pass it on yet because it is still incubating (waiting to become contagious).
Bad bad bad. #COVID19
Bad bad bad. #COVID19
3) This is much bigger than the officially diagnosed number of cases— which is an average of 477/mil/day in US.
If we assume each case is infectious for ~10 days, the 3.6 million is roughly 2.3x the average number of new cases recorded in the past week *10 days.
If we assume each case is infectious for ~10 days, the 3.6 million is roughly 2.3x the average number of new cases recorded in the past week *10 days.
4) above is not exact, because severe hospitalized cases can be infectious for up to 20 days. But average infectious period is 10 days. As a minimum, it implies we are missing ~56% of all infectious cases (1-(1/(2.28))). Better than 10-20x before. But still many cases undetected.
5) And above is just for infectious cases. If we assume incubation is on average 5 days, there are still up 5 days more worth of undetected cases waiting to be soon infectious. Tons more cases undetected than our daily officially confirmed case numbers. This is not good.
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