How does this impact HBO Max's unit economics? How much are customer acquisition cost (CAC) and cost of goods sold (COGS) impacted? The former is about acquiring new customers.

"Wonder Woman 1984 won’t cost anything beyond the monthly subscription fee." theverge.com/2020/11/18/215…
Mufasa: "Simba, what is CAC for HBO Max without this decision to offer Wonder Woman to subscribers at no extra charge? What's CAC for Disney Plus, and Netflix? What is monthly churn?"

Simba: "Dad do you ever stop thinking about unit economics?"

Mufasa: "This is what kings do."
Simba: "HBO Max has 6M subscribers. Disney Plus, which launched a year ago, has 73M. AppleTV Plus has a reported 34M."

Mufasa: "Content can be effective CAC. Giving up some WW theatrical revenues is sleeves off their vest. No extra charge for WW, isn't." fastcompany.com/90576026/can-w…
Simba: "Why doesn't HBO Max charge for Wonder Woman 1984 like Disney did with Mulan? Higher ARPU..."

Mufasa: "That would send churn and CAC higher. All....

Simba: "...unit economics variables are interconnected in the great circle of life."

Zazu: "He's getting it Mufasa."
5/ Mufasa: "My son, the great kings like John Malone understand what a genuine gross addition is."

Rafiki: "Anyone who reads Variety knows HBO Max rolls up all subscribers who are eligible to get it — even if they haven’t watched it. Non-users churn." variety.com/2020/digital/n…
6/ Simba: "Malone gets the power of scale. He said today:

'in addition to content, only the platforms, like Roku, are in pretty good position to build a long-term profitable global business.'

When he said wholesale in the interview I thought: WTPP!"

cnbc.com/2020/11/19/joh…
7/ Simba: "I've read Tren's posts on John Malone. I get wholesale transfer pricing power."

Mufasa: "You must understand the cost of distribution. Reed Hastings releases valuable content to reduce CAC and churn on every day that ends with the letter Y." 25iq.com/2014/11/02/a-d…
8/ Rafiki: "The easiest person to fool is yourself when it comes to unit economics."

Mufasa: "Malone was saying in the interview: you need to saddle up to the cost of CAC or get out of the game."

Zazu: "Scale creates self reinforcing feedback loops!"cnbc.com/2019/11/21/lib…
9/ Nala: "Roku shares closed at a new record high of $255.67, up more than 10% for the day, on whispers of a distribution deal with HBO Max and a firm endorsement from John Malone." deadline.com/2020/11/roku-s…

Pumbaa: "Roku will keep its focus on distribution and advertising."
10/ Mufasa: "If the platform can capture a large enough global scale of consumers who are essentially using it as a bundling agent—as an intermediary— they’re going to have market power over suppliers of the content." nexttv.com/news/that-time…

Simba: "Value chain analysis! WTPP!"
11/ Rafiki: "Malone said he invited Reed Hastings to a Liberty board meeting and he assured everyone he had no intention of producing his own content. Malone responded by calling ‘bullshit’ and said 'It was clear where you are headed. If you don't understand it now, you will.'"
12/ Simba: "A direct relationship is valuable if the business steps up to spending on customer acquisition."

Mufasa: "Not paying to acquire customers isn't an option for a real-world business. Everything is interconnected. " 25iq.com/2018/06/02/pro…

cnbc.com/2020/11/20/ama…
13/ Rafiki: "It is easier to solve business model challenges if you assume that customers will be acquired at scale by the tooth fairy. Scar did that which is why he isn't king."

Mufasa: "Disney's low CAC is remarkable but it isn't zero. That happens only in cartoons and games."

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @trengriffin

18 Nov
1/ “Hey, Tren, hey, how about a little something, you know, more specific about which stocks were bought by Todd and Ted in the Berkshire 13F, you know.”

I replied “Oh, uh, there won’t be any list, but I will give you the questions to ask, which is nice." sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
2/ For example: How big is the purchase or sale? If a sale, what's the holding period? Is it in Buffet/Munger's circle of competence? Margin of safety given the purchase price? Is the business understandable? Does it have a sustainable moat? Is it a franchise Buffett/Munger love?
3/ Determining what is Todd and Ted is a process of elimination. Munger has said Todd and Ted are free to make their own decisions since Buffett would have hated it at their age. Todd and Ted only have so much capital. That's a clue.

Final exam: who made the pharma investments?
Read 8 tweets
15 Nov
1/ Charlie Munger: “We have the same problem as everyone else: It’s very hard to predict the future."

Seth Klarman: "An unresolvable contradiction exists: to perform present value analysis, you must predict the future, yet the future is not reliably predictable."
2/ Charlie Munger: “Stocks partly sell like bonds, based on expectations of future cash streams, and partly like Rembrandts, based on the fact that they’ve gone up in the past and are fashionable."
3/ "If stocks trade more like Rembrandts in the future, then stocks will rise, but they will have no anchors. In this case, it’s hard to predict how far, how high and how long it will last.”

Charlie Munger on the problems with a Keynesian Beauty Contest approach.
Read 10 tweets
13 Nov
What business is this?
You wanted to see my favorite chart in a S-1?
Have you adjusted to all this adjusting yet?

Is "adjusted EBITDA" redundant since it's adjusting what was already an adjustment?

Should the Department of Redundancy Department be contacted?
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
1/ "Starlink’s initial pricing — $100 per month and $499 to purchase the Starlink user terminal — is not a beta-only introductory price but reflects what pricing will be in the full commercial service, Starlink Vice President Jonathan Hofeller said."
"Right now there’s a huge amount of demand [for Starlink service] which is excellent. It currently exceeds current supply,” Hofeller said SpaceX hopes to lower the cost of the terminal over time." satellitetoday.com/business/2020/…
3/ A Beta user said: "the system represents a massive upgrade over his DSL provider. If you were to just use Starlink to watch YouTube or Netflix where they download a buffer, it'll feel like great city cable internet. Upload ranges between 10 to 38Mbps.” news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
Charlie Munger: “There are all kinds of wonderful new inventions that give you nothing as owners except the opportunity to spend a lot more money in a business that’s still going to be lousy." "Nothing sticks to the ribs of owners."

Is there a barrier to entry for fake meat?
Memphis Meats, MosaMeat, SuperMeat, Integriculture, Aleph Farms, Finless Food., Avant Meats, Balletic Foods, Future Meat, Appleton Meats Higher Steaks, Beyond Meat, LightLife Maple Leaf Foods, Field Roast, Impossible Foods, Kellogg’s Morningstar Farms, Turtle Island Foods...
"Eight brokerages cut their price targets" *after* the stock went down.

"Beyond Meat said it co-created the patty in McPlant, but could not provide any further details, leaving analysts puzzled as to how much Beyond Meat could earn from the tie up." reuters.com/article/busine…
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
On Covid, please remember:

“A margin of safety is available for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck."

“A lesson inherent in any probabilistic exercise: the frequency of correctness doesn't matter; it's magnitude of correctness that matters.” MM
How should you act to reduce Covid transmission risks if you know or even suspect that there are no reliable models to rely on?

You have only one life.

“There is no way that one can sensibly assign probabilities to the unknown states of the world." 25iq.com/2018/09/08/ris…
“Avoid things like racing trains to the crossing... A lot of success in life and business comes from knowing what you want to avoid. What will automatically do the worst damage and how do I avoid it? Figure out what you don’t want and avoid it and you’ll get what you do want." CM
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!