EU officials still hoping that Project Fear will bite on Hungary and Poland who face huge financial losses if there is no budget agreement this year, forcing Brussels to fall back on a "provisional twelfths" budget for the first time since 1988 ft.com/content/dd8c23…
Dec 7 marks the formal end of the "conciliation" period between MEPs and the council to agree a new budget for 2021. If there is no deal at this point, the EU's emergency austerity budget automatically kicks in from Jan 1 based on extending the budget ceilings from 2020.
But contrary to some hopes of MEPs, rolling over the 2020 budget ceilings doesn't mean the EU has a more "generous" 2021 budget. Under the 12ths, new cohesion money disappears - as do all the newly agreed priorities on research, science, climate (Just Transition Fund)
The commission will eventually propose a new 2021 budget after Jan, but the legal basis for many programmes will disappear in the absence of an MFF agreement. Officials think that the sheer volume of money that 🇵🇱🇭🇺 lose will bring them back to the table.
The double whammy blow would be the application of the Rule of Law conditions on the emergency budget, showing PL and HU that they are the biggest losers of their veto play. Three weeks for this game of chicken to play out 🐔🐔🐔
And not to underestimate what a nighmare clusterfuck the emergency budget scenario is for the commission - who only four months ago were revelling in the EU's Hamiltonian response to Covid-19
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
