EU leaders had a 16 min discussion on rule of law #MFF tonight #euco. Orban gave a concise and to the point expalanation of Hungary's stance. There were no fireworks or emotive pleas from the rest, including Merkel. One diplomat describes it as "stage managed" to avoid a bust up
Merkel kicked off #euco proceedings with a technical intervention about need to get a dealHungary, Slovenia, and Poland all took the floor at. Diplomats don't think Polish veto is as solid as the Hungarian one (for now) while Jansa is playing for a domestic crowd.
Rule of Law spat was never going to be solved at #euco tonight. Relatively short and drama-free interventions - including from Orban - indicator that a possible deal is in the works. Silence in Brussels is usually the sound of a fudge brewing
Merkel after tonight's #euco: "We are obliged to try to find a way. It's clear how important this is. It's a serious problem that we have to solve, and we will work hard and earnestly on it."
von der Leyen: "Now we sit down, we negotiate, we listen to what the issues are and we try to solve them."

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More from @MehreenKhn

19 Nov
EU officials still hoping that Project Fear will bite on Hungary and Poland who face huge financial losses if there is no budget agreement this year, forcing Brussels to fall back on a "provisional twelfths" budget for the first time since 1988 ft.com/content/dd8c23…
Dec 7 marks the formal end of the "conciliation" period between MEPs and the council to agree a new budget for 2021. If there is no deal at this point, the EU's emergency austerity budget automatically kicks in from Jan 1 based on extending the budget ceilings from 2020.
But contrary to some hopes of MEPs, rolling over the 2020 budget ceilings doesn't mean the EU has a more "generous" 2021 budget. Under the 12ths, new cohesion money disappears - as do all the newly agreed priorities on research, science, climate (Just Transition Fund)
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
Pushed by 🇫🇷 🇦🇹, 🇩🇪 EU presidency wants #euco to sign off on push against Islamic radicalism and terrorism. Draft text connects radicalisation/terrorism with migration and integration, calling for sanctions for a "refusal to integrate" like removing funding from NGOs
Anti-terror draft says migrants must make active effort to "successfully integrate" and prove adherence to EU values. Reference to children captures French discomfort at alleged "separatism" not of migrants but 2nd/3rd generation French Muslim citizens who are not immigrants.
Merkel, Macron, Kurz due to discuss the text and possible endorsement at video-conference of EU leaders next week. Unclear how Poland and Hungary feel about the compulsory education of EU values like human rights, freedom of religion, and equal rights of men and women
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
French Muslims must be pretty flattered that in a middle of global pandemic and even a European Council, Emmanuel Macron has taken the time out to tell them all how they should stop becoming Islamist separatists.
Macron says "Islam is a religion which is experiencing a crisis throughout the world". I'm waiting for him to call us a brain-dead #Separatisme
There doesn't seem to be much behind Macron's anti-separatism bill which makes his decision to stand up and make the country's Muslims a target a suspicion for their everyday activity (school, work) an even more cycnical and desperate attempt to court the far-right
Read 7 tweets
1 Oct
EU summit stuck on Turkey. #Euco draft text tabled an hour ago:
- repeats EU solidarity with Greece, CY
- calls for halting of TR gas activity
- says if constructive efforts are made in E Med, the council will "launch a positive EU Turkey agenda" and "renergising" with TR
Language as it stands seems to be getting nowhere with Cyprus. Diplomats say the discussion has been further complicated by French push to condemn Turkey's role in Nagorno-Karabakh #euco
For those who have been frustrated by linkage between Belarus sanctions and the Eastern Med situation, wait til you here about
Nagorno-Karabakh #euco
Read 13 tweets
30 Sep
Seven member states - including Poland Hungary, the Frugal Four (plus 🇫🇮) reject council draft text on the rule of law. 🇧🇪🇱🇺 also raise objections. Council goes ahead with mandate to open negotiations with the Parliament
To make things easier from here on the EU's "Rule of Law Friends" (🇳🇱🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮🇦🇹🇧🇪🇱🇺) will be known as ROLF
Senior diplomat from ROLF says German text goes against EU leaders July deal as it "limits" the powers of the commission to start legal action against a MS for breaching rule of law. Points out that EU 6 founding members are now fundamentally divided on this question
Read 7 tweets
28 Sep
German presidency's draft proposal on rule of law mechanism toughens up link between values & funds and also offers an emergency brake lite to targeted countries. But it's already meeting short shrift with govs who want tool with teeth. Risks being non-starter in divided council ImageImage
As per today's @ftbrussels briefing, delay over MFF not simply about the Parliament as member states on both sides of rule of law debate (🇳🇱 v 🇭🇺🇵🇱) have said they will not ratify any final deal before they know what conditionality is attached
German draft already dismissed by hard-line member state as not enough. MEPs likely to do same. With clock ticking, 🇫🇷🇩🇪& south getting worried talks could be stuck in mud for months. France has told Dutch/Nordics that rule of law is important but not imp enough for more delay
Read 5 tweets

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