1/ There are basically 5 phases of fraud allegations and Trump defeat that I see. We're somewhere between Phase 3 and Phase 4. Here is how I'd break it down:
Phase 1: Sow doubt before the election. A constant barrage of nothing but claims that mail-in voting was ripe for fraud.
Phase 1: Sow doubt before the election. A constant barrage of nothing but claims that mail-in voting was ripe for fraud.
2/ Phase 2: After losing the election, reframe every single thing you can find that even has a whiff of peculiarity as widespread, massive, election changing voter fraud.
This was the "flood the zone" phase where my thread blew up
This was the "flood the zone" phase where my thread blew up
https://twitter.com/Ike_Saul/status/1324435797374808066
3/ Phase 3: Try to offload conspiracies from Twitter and Facebook into the court system, and fail miserably (we’re just about done this phase).
Trump's team is getting clobbered in court. Taking an absolute beatdown in every fathomable way. The end is nigh.
Trump's team is getting clobbered in court. Taking an absolute beatdown in every fathomable way. The end is nigh.
4/ Phase 4: Try to target specific electors and sow enough doubt or delay that they abandon their duty to certify the vote. This face started in Michigan -- we'll see it bubble for a little while. It won't last long. washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
5/ Phase 5: Run out of options, watch Republicans jump ship, watch WSJ/Fox News jump ship, watch Biden get inaugurated, and then spend the next four years claiming the election was stolen as leverage for fundraising, earned media, and maybe a 2024 run. This starts pre-Xmas.
END/ Upshot is we're near the beginning of the end now, and I'm sure there will be a few more dramatic moments between now and Jan 20th. But between T-giving and Xmas you'll notice a lot less energy behind all this craziness. Slowly, it'll become confined to a very small group.
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