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20 Nov, 11 tweets, 4 min read
OMG. Trump's lawyers filed an affidavit claiming statistical irregularities proving election fraud because they *confused Michigan for Minnesota*

They thought "MI" = Minnesota (it's MN), and then compared a bunch of results in Minnesota to Michigan population statistics.
It perhaps the most embarrassing part of all this, the mistake was first reported on Powerline Blog, a reliably pro-Trump space. Just incredible.

powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/…
I think this is gonna make the cut for Tangle: tangle.substack.com/about
I should clarify here: Lin Wood filed this affidavit, and he is not a "Trump lawyer" so much as a "Trump ally." Trump's team (Giuliani, Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell, etc.) have referenced Wood's "evidence" and "anomalies" in Michigan as "proof" of fraud.

This is that analysis.
Here's how @jhinderaker explains it in Powerline:
Also probably a good time to remind you that Sidney Powell refused to give *Tucker Carlson* her "evidence" of fraud (lol)

It seems like, maybe... and bear with me here... there might not actually be any evidence of Dominion Voting Systems switching votes!
Here's Lin Wood assuring his followers that he and Sidney Powell (helping lead Trump's legal efforts) have "caught" the fraudsters.

This is the Strike Force Team of Spartans working to overturn the election. The people who are mistaking towns in Minnesota for Michigan and using that mistake as proof millions of votes were switched by a system the late Hugo Chavez ushered in.
WaPo's Aaron Blake points out this affidavit is literally the one Sidney Powell and Trump's legal team keep referencing as proof of statistical anomalies in Michigan that will overturn the election
Worth noting that Dominion is not the only election fraud claim with a simple explanation like this. I've been tracking all of them, actually, and ~90% are just as easily explainable as this one. I wrote a round-up about this phenomenon with many examples: tangle.substack.com/p/election-fra…

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More from @Ike_Saul

Isaac Saul Profile picture
20 Nov
My family just canceled Thanksgiving, the one holiday we all have together. We had all been isolating and getting tests to make it happen, but ultimately bringing 15+ people together from across the U.S. is just not tenable. This is the worst COVID-19 has ever been.
I'm not saying this to virtue signal. But seeing that other people I trust made the same call helped me make the decision, too. And now that it's done I feel a lot less stressed. I hope Americans all weigh the risk thoroughly this year, especially w/ so many new cases...
One thing that made it crystal clear to me was this tool from Ga Tech, which can tell you the risk of someone having covid-19 based on the size of a gathering. It was 24% in my home county for a gathering of 15 people: covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu
Read 4 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
20 Nov
Unpopular opinion: we should stop scoffing at "never-Trump" Republicans. They just had the best election result imaginable, and POTUS + the grifter crew are now proving all the points they've been making for four years. I think they should feel more vindication than anyone.
While many on the left have loathed the Trump policies/conservative Senate, these guys & gals were warning about this: the endgame. What happens when Trump meets defeat and the Republican party has a choice.

Now we're seeing the destruction that's been slowly caused for years.
Republican senators are divided on the basic reality of who won the election. Tucker's audience is turning on him. Sidney Powell transformed into a conspiracy theorist. The ppl closest to Trump now are the biggest liars and grifters. Rudy Giuliani is running the "legal team"
Read 6 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
19 Nov
1/ Just spoke to election security expert @beckerdavidj — he made some points I'm not seeing elsewhere that I'd like to share:

Every vote in the battleground states in this election was cast on a paper ballot (except for a small number of folks with disabilities). Every one!
2/ He actually listed all the states that did all paper ballots from memory, off the top of his head: FL, GA, NC, VA, PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, AZ, NV.

"You can't hack a paper ballot," he points out.
3/ 95% of all votes in the U.S. this year had a paper trail. That's far more than in 2016! In fact, in 2016, GA had almost all electronic voting and Pennsylvania was pretty split. He points out that this gave us incredible transparency this year.
Read 13 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
19 Nov
1/ There are basically 5 phases of fraud allegations and Trump defeat that I see. We're somewhere between Phase 3 and Phase 4. Here is how I'd break it down:

Phase 1: Sow doubt before the election. A constant barrage of nothing but claims that mail-in voting was ripe for fraud.
2/ Phase 2: After losing the election, reframe every single thing you can find that even has a whiff of peculiarity as widespread, massive, election changing voter fraud.

This was the "flood the zone" phase where my thread blew up
3/ Phase 3: Try to offload conspiracies from Twitter and Facebook into the court system, and fail miserably (we’re just about done this phase).

Trump's team is getting clobbered in court. Taking an absolute beatdown in every fathomable way. The end is nigh.
Read 6 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
18 Nov
FWIW, at this rate, I would bet good money we don't see any crucial swing states delay the certification of their vote — even if one or two more counties go rogue. In all the states that matter, certification looks nearly guaranteed by the deadline. I'll update if that changes.
And the reason I'm confident is the same: states are not going to avoid certifying unless there are allegations of fraud that get traction. So far, we haven't even come close to that. Most of the Trump lawsuits aren't even alleging fraud. That hasn't changed at all in 2 weeks.
Both Republicans and Democrats that matter in the states that matter have not even so much at hinted at a delay in certifying the vote because responsible people hold those positions and know the election hasn't been compromised. At worst, we see more recounts like in Georgia.
Read 4 tweets
Isaac Saul Profile picture
17 Nov
The state board isn't going to follow suit, but the Trump campaign's baseless claims of a fraudulent election have polluted enough brains to actually undermine the integrity of an election he lost by 150,000 votes. It's really shameful.
A lot of people asking how I know this: because the state board is not susceptible to this kind of nonsense the way the county board in Wayne apparently is. They've made it quite clear already: washingtonpost.com/politics/michi…
And, for whatever it's worth, Biden actually doesn't need Michigan to win the election (he'd have 290 EVs without it) -- not that it should even come to that, but that's how not close this election is
Read 4 tweets

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