FWIW, at this rate, I would bet good money we don't see any crucial swing states delay the certification of their vote — even if one or two more counties go rogue. In all the states that matter, certification looks nearly guaranteed by the deadline. I'll update if that changes.
And the reason I'm confident is the same: states are not going to avoid certifying unless there are allegations of fraud that get traction. So far, we haven't even come close to that. Most of the Trump lawsuits aren't even alleging fraud. That hasn't changed at all in 2 weeks.
Both Republicans and Democrats that matter in the states that matter have not even so much at hinted at a delay in certifying the vote because responsible people hold those positions and know the election hasn't been compromised. At worst, we see more recounts like in Georgia.
Even in the event of more recounts or audits — like the partial one in Wisconsin — counties don't necessarily need to wait for those to play out to certify (see Michigan). Either way, every day that passes is another day closer to the end of this absurd charade.

Tick tock!

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More from @Ike_Saul

20 Nov
OMG. Trump's lawyers filed an affidavit claiming statistical irregularities proving election fraud because they *confused Michigan for Minnesota*

They thought "MI" = Minnesota (it's MN), and then compared a bunch of results in Minnesota to Michigan population statistics.
It perhaps the most embarrassing part of all this, the mistake was first reported on Powerline Blog, a reliably pro-Trump space. Just incredible.

powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/…
ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
20 Nov
Unpopular opinion: we should stop scoffing at "never-Trump" Republicans. They just had the best election result imaginable, and POTUS + the grifter crew are now proving all the points they've been making for four years. I think they should feel more vindication than anyone.
While many on the left have loathed the Trump policies/conservative Senate, these guys & gals were warning about this: the endgame. What happens when Trump meets defeat and the Republican party has a choice.

Now we're seeing the destruction that's been slowly caused for years.
Republican senators are divided on the basic reality of who won the election. Tucker's audience is turning on him. Sidney Powell transformed into a conspiracy theorist. The ppl closest to Trump now are the biggest liars and grifters. Rudy Giuliani is running the "legal team"
Read 6 tweets
19 Nov
1/ Just spoke to election security expert @beckerdavidj — he made some points I'm not seeing elsewhere that I'd like to share:

Every vote in the battleground states in this election was cast on a paper ballot (except for a small number of folks with disabilities). Every one!
2/ He actually listed all the states that did all paper ballots from memory, off the top of his head: FL, GA, NC, VA, PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, AZ, NV.

"You can't hack a paper ballot," he points out.
3/ 95% of all votes in the U.S. this year had a paper trail. That's far more than in 2016! In fact, in 2016, GA had almost all electronic voting and Pennsylvania was pretty split. He points out that this gave us incredible transparency this year.
Read 13 tweets
19 Nov
1/ There are basically 5 phases of fraud allegations and Trump defeat that I see. We're somewhere between Phase 3 and Phase 4. Here is how I'd break it down:

Phase 1: Sow doubt before the election. A constant barrage of nothing but claims that mail-in voting was ripe for fraud.
2/ Phase 2: After losing the election, reframe every single thing you can find that even has a whiff of peculiarity as widespread, massive, election changing voter fraud.

This was the "flood the zone" phase where my thread blew up
3/ Phase 3: Try to offload conspiracies from Twitter and Facebook into the court system, and fail miserably (we’re just about done this phase).

Trump's team is getting clobbered in court. Taking an absolute beatdown in every fathomable way. The end is nigh.
Read 6 tweets
17 Nov
The state board isn't going to follow suit, but the Trump campaign's baseless claims of a fraudulent election have polluted enough brains to actually undermine the integrity of an election he lost by 150,000 votes. It's really shameful.
A lot of people asking how I know this: because the state board is not susceptible to this kind of nonsense the way the county board in Wayne apparently is. They've made it quite clear already: washingtonpost.com/politics/michi…
And, for whatever it's worth, Biden actually doesn't need Michigan to win the election (he'd have 290 EVs without it) -- not that it should even come to that, but that's how not close this election is
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
If the Trump campaign was confident in its ability to overturn the vote in Wisconsin with an audit or recount, this would be a no-brainer. They would have paid the fee last week. The fact they haven't (and probably won't) is one of the strongest indicators yet ab their position.
NARRATOR: It'll be in the counties with a lot of Democrats!
Read 4 tweets

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