Isaac Saul Profile picture
19 Nov, 14 tweets, 3 min read
1/ Just spoke to election security expert @beckerdavidj — he made some points I'm not seeing elsewhere that I'd like to share:

Every vote in the battleground states in this election was cast on a paper ballot (except for a small number of folks with disabilities). Every one!
2/ He actually listed all the states that did all paper ballots from memory, off the top of his head: FL, GA, NC, VA, PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, AZ, NV.

"You can't hack a paper ballot," he points out.
3/ 95% of all votes in the U.S. this year had a paper trail. That's far more than in 2016! In fact, in 2016, GA had almost all electronic voting and Pennsylvania was pretty split. He points out that this gave us incredible transparency this year.
4/ Becker, like other experts, said unprompted to me that this was the most transparent and secure election he’s ever seen. And he is not just a mouthpiece (he’s actually quite critical of some electronic voting, and sees areas for improvement in the process). He meant it.
5/ Though he’s not crazy about the 5% of votes cast on all electronic (which, again, wasn’t happening in any battlegrounds) he did note there are good ways to check for intrusions — and all that all those machines are looked at pre and post-election. Not enough talk about that.
6/ For all the B.S. "statistical analysis" that is just people misreading data, there have been no allegations about voting machines being compromised.

None.

This is important because it's something we'd actually know post-election by looking!

And, again, we have the paper.
7/ He also pointed out just how many layers of guardrails we have now. For instance: ballots are specially printed on special paper with special ink with special barcodes being run against records across counties and states to ensure only eligible voters are casting ballots.
8/ What about the mail-in votes? He noted out that this election was ALWAYS going to be a GIANT mail-in election regardless of the pandemic, and he was prepared. 1 in 4 votes cast in 2016 were mail-ins, and right now we’re looking at about ~40% of votes cast being cast by mail.
9/ Given all the wild stuff going on, I asked him what’s giving him optimism. He said “courts have largely held up, they have held this campaign to the burdens of proof. They have regularly and repeatedly and unanimously rejected all these claims…"
10/ "That’s why you’re seeing all these crazy press conferences… they’re making claims that if these same lawyers went into court and made these claims they’d be disbarred. They are crazy conspiracy theories and courts have held that up.”
11/ He also noted Republican, Democratic and non-partisan election officials — even those who have received death threats — are standing strong and holding the line on reality. “These people are heroes,” he said.
12/ I didn't know this, but he also told me election officials from out of state are volunteering and traveling to Georgia to help with the recount — the largest ever — and are going to hear (likely today) confirmation Biden won Georgia by more than 10,000 votes.
END/ There is so much noise out there. People like @beckerdavidj are doing nonpartisan work on election security and have been for decades. His voice is reassuring and centering amidst all the conspiracies. He's worth a follow and your time.
If you like reality, come join me...I run an independent, ad-free, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that examines the best arguments from the right AND left on the news of the day. Then my take:
tangle.substack.com/about

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More from @Ike_Saul

20 Nov
My family just canceled Thanksgiving, the one holiday we all have together. We had all been isolating and getting tests to make it happen, but ultimately bringing 15+ people together from across the U.S. is just not tenable. This is the worst COVID-19 has ever been.
I'm not saying this to virtue signal. But seeing that other people I trust made the same call helped me make the decision, too. And now that it's done I feel a lot less stressed. I hope Americans all weigh the risk thoroughly this year, especially w/ so many new cases...
One thing that made it crystal clear to me was this tool from Ga Tech, which can tell you the risk of someone having covid-19 based on the size of a gathering. It was 24% in my home county for a gathering of 15 people: covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
OMG. Trump's lawyers filed an affidavit claiming statistical irregularities proving election fraud because they *confused Michigan for Minnesota*

They thought "MI" = Minnesota (it's MN), and then compared a bunch of results in Minnesota to Michigan population statistics.
It perhaps the most embarrassing part of all this, the mistake was first reported on Powerline Blog, a reliably pro-Trump space. Just incredible.

powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/…
ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
20 Nov
Unpopular opinion: we should stop scoffing at "never-Trump" Republicans. They just had the best election result imaginable, and POTUS + the grifter crew are now proving all the points they've been making for four years. I think they should feel more vindication than anyone.
While many on the left have loathed the Trump policies/conservative Senate, these guys & gals were warning about this: the endgame. What happens when Trump meets defeat and the Republican party has a choice.

Now we're seeing the destruction that's been slowly caused for years.
Republican senators are divided on the basic reality of who won the election. Tucker's audience is turning on him. Sidney Powell transformed into a conspiracy theorist. The ppl closest to Trump now are the biggest liars and grifters. Rudy Giuliani is running the "legal team"
Read 6 tweets
19 Nov
1/ There are basically 5 phases of fraud allegations and Trump defeat that I see. We're somewhere between Phase 3 and Phase 4. Here is how I'd break it down:

Phase 1: Sow doubt before the election. A constant barrage of nothing but claims that mail-in voting was ripe for fraud.
2/ Phase 2: After losing the election, reframe every single thing you can find that even has a whiff of peculiarity as widespread, massive, election changing voter fraud.

This was the "flood the zone" phase where my thread blew up
3/ Phase 3: Try to offload conspiracies from Twitter and Facebook into the court system, and fail miserably (we’re just about done this phase).

Trump's team is getting clobbered in court. Taking an absolute beatdown in every fathomable way. The end is nigh.
Read 6 tweets
18 Nov
FWIW, at this rate, I would bet good money we don't see any crucial swing states delay the certification of their vote — even if one or two more counties go rogue. In all the states that matter, certification looks nearly guaranteed by the deadline. I'll update if that changes.
And the reason I'm confident is the same: states are not going to avoid certifying unless there are allegations of fraud that get traction. So far, we haven't even come close to that. Most of the Trump lawsuits aren't even alleging fraud. That hasn't changed at all in 2 weeks.
Both Republicans and Democrats that matter in the states that matter have not even so much at hinted at a delay in certifying the vote because responsible people hold those positions and know the election hasn't been compromised. At worst, we see more recounts like in Georgia.
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
The state board isn't going to follow suit, but the Trump campaign's baseless claims of a fraudulent election have polluted enough brains to actually undermine the integrity of an election he lost by 150,000 votes. It's really shameful.
A lot of people asking how I know this: because the state board is not susceptible to this kind of nonsense the way the county board in Wayne apparently is. They've made it quite clear already: washingtonpost.com/politics/michi…
And, for whatever it's worth, Biden actually doesn't need Michigan to win the election (he'd have 290 EVs without it) -- not that it should even come to that, but that's how not close this election is
Read 4 tweets

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