Thread by @JakeSherman

Playbook: On @JoeBiden and @senatemajldr

@JoeBiden has an incredibly ambitious legislative agenda: He wants to rework the nation’s health care laws, fund infrastructure and pass a new round of coronavirus relief.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr THAT ALL SOUNDS ALL WELL AND GOOD, but there’s one massive -- and familiar -- complication: @senatemajldr

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr BIDEN -- Joe Knows Congress -- said repeatedly throughout the campaign that he thought when he beat @realDonaldTrump , the fog would lift, and Republicans would see the light of bipartisanship.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump Maybe they will. But at this point, that doesn’t seem imminent. A large pocket of the Senate Republican Conference is behind TRUMP in his quest to challenge election results, and few will even acknowledge the reality that BIDEN has won the election.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump WE ASKED @senatemajldr on Wednesday about his much ballyhooed relationship with BIDEN. MCCONNELL had just answered a separate question, but when we asked about BIDEN, he stopped talking on a dime, stared up at an elevator and gazed at it as if it were a Picasso. He then left.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump POOL REPORTERS IN DELAWARE Wednesday asked BIDEN why he hadn’t spoken to MCCONNELL. HERE’S THE POOL REPORT: “‘There’s a lot going on,’ though it was unclear to me whether he was responding to the McConnell question or explaining why he wasn’t stopping to take questions.”

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump >@JoeBiden did find time to talk to @SpeakerPelosi to congratulate her on winning an internal party election that she won unanimously.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump @SpeakerPelosi IF HE IS MAJORITY LEADER, SWAYING MCCONNELL, of course, is almost certainly the key to BIDEN’S success. And DEMOCRATS have made a good habit of losing to him in the last half dozen years.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump @SpeakerPelosi He took the majority in 14, blocked GARLAND from the Supreme Court in 2016 and then stacked the high court -- and the entire judiciary -- w conservatives between 2017 and 2020. Ds couldn’t take majority from him in 2018 or (so far) in 2020. They couldn’t beat him in Ky.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump @SpeakerPelosi MCCONNELL HAS A MAXIM, though, and it’s quite easy to discern from watching the Capitol: If you can beat him, beat him. MCCONNELL is driven by power. If you have the votes to stop him from exerting his will, then do it, and if you can’t, then that’s too bad.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump @SpeakerPelosi He doesn’t care for letters urging him to do things, or press conferences calling him the devil. To call it bare-knuckle politics would be kind.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump @SpeakerPelosi DEMOCRATS ARE EAGER TO REMIND that they don’t play MCCONNELL’S game. And that couldn’t be more evident.

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump @SpeakerPelosi MCCONNELL’S strength is that he has a united Senate R conf at nearly all times. They follow him, & trust him. So, the road map for BIDEN here is quite clear. He has 2 options: Can BIDEN create an environment in which he has a governing coalition willing to split w @senatemajldr ?

@JoeBiden @senatemajldr @realDonaldTrump @SpeakerPelosi Or, more likely, can BIDEN -- the self-styled master legislator -- act quickly to move on areas in which the two sides have shared legislative priorities: Covid relief and perhaps a government funding deal, if that doesn’t get done this month.

ANOTHER THING THAT WILL DRIVE Republicans is a tough 2022 map. There are a bunch of potentially competitive states Republicans will have to wage races in, including FLORIDA, GEORGIA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA and WISCONSIN.

THERE’S THIS WILD CARD: JOE KNOWS CONGRESS may have to work to beat TRUMP, as well. If the 45th president is weighing in on legislating from the sidelines, that will influence Republican senators who need his coalition to turn out to win reelection.

OF COURSE, Democrats could just win two seats in Georgia. Then this is all moot.