Thread by @rdanielkelemen

Lots of smoke & mirrors in fight over rule of law. Here's my take in @POLITICOEurope on what's really going on: "If European leaders want to escape this autocracy trap, they must begin by standing up forcefully to regimes that try to hold the EU hostage"🧵
politico.eu/article/time-t…

2. First, on how we got here, it all goes back to @EPP appeasement of their pet autocrat Orbán over past decade. "The EPP has protected Orbán for political gain... But this week its pet autocrat turned against his long-time protectors" They are now reaping what they sowed.

3. As those who follow me know, I've been writing about this for years - most recently in my Article on "The European Union's Authoritarian Equilibrium" - summarized here:

https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1232905711182544896?s=20

4. But back to rule of law conditionality... there is something rather odd about the fight happening now. The fight centers on a proposed regulation that would provide the EU with a new tool to suspend its funding to member governments who flout the Union’s rule of law norms.

5. The regulation is itself a compromise text - much weaker than what the advocates of rule of law had hoped for. The original Commission proposal from 2018 was watered down by the Council, under the leadership of the current German Presidency.

6. Under the rule of law conditionality regulation, a states’ EU funds can only be suspended if the Commission wins the support of a ‘qualified majority’ (supermajority) of member states in the Council for this action & if the violations of rule of law norms in question....

7. risk affecting “the sound financial management of the EU budget or the protection of the financial interests of the Union in a sufficiently direct way.” This requirement for a direct link to the budget will severely limit how the regulation can be used.

8. Though adoption of the regulation would show political support for Commission action on rule of law, arguably it doesn't add much to powers Commission already had to suspend funds under existing structural funds regulations - as Scheppele & I argued verfassungsblog.de/how-to-stop-fu…

9. Also, while many people seem to assume regulation will almost automatically cut off EU funds to states who violate rule of law, that is wrong. Triggering reg is up to @EU_Commission & @vonderleyen has proven herself to be weak on defending rule of law politico.eu/article/ursula…

10. So, given that the regulation is a watered down compromise and given that @vonderleyen is an autocrat appeaser who won't be eager to trigger it, "Why are HU & PL alienating so many other member governments by threatening to hold up the funds they so desperately need? "

11. While the regulation has flaws, it does increase the chance EU could eventually suspend at least some funds to these regimes - & that is indeed something that worries them, as their regimes & clientelistic networks (esp. Orban's) depend on infusions of EU cash.

12. I discuss that in my "Authoritarian Equilibrium" article, but for more detail see this incredible thread by @panyiszabolcs

https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1328609561880768512?s=20

or Bálint Magyar's book on Orban's mafia state ceupress.com/book/post-comm…

13. So, I think what is happening here is that by putting up a big fight now, HU & PL don't expect to stop the regulation, but they want to send a warning shot - signalling to EU leaders that if they ever dare to actually use the mechanism & suspend funds, they will go ballistic

14. Therefore, I expect HU & PL to eventually back down re: blocking #MFF budget and #NextGenEU recovery package. They just want to get some informal guarantees the mechanism won't actually be used against them.

15. They may succeed in that - after all as @ProfPech has shown, EU leaders have played a 'rule of law instrument creation cycle' for years - focusing on creating new tools to distract attention from their failure to use the tools already at their disposal.

16. To move past that futile cycle, the first step is to call the autocrats' bluff and pass the rule of law conditionality regulation which can be done by qualified majority vote. Once it is a fait accompli, their incentive to veto the budget disappears and they will cave

17. The real test will come afterward, when we'll see if the @EU_Commission - which has been derelict in its duties as Guardian of the Treaties - will finally take a stronger stand and actually trigger the mechanism to suspend funds to autocrats

18. I'm not optimistic that they will - after all - as I said above - @vonderleyen has proven herself to be an autocrat appeaser - very much in keeping with the policy of her party @CDU and mentor Chancellor Merkel

19. But first step is to call the autocrats' bluff & pass rule of law conditionality regulation by QMV: "Only once the EU demonstrates the resolve to defend democracy and the rule of law can it begin to escape the trap that its years of appeasement have created."

20. To hear more, listen in to my talk next week at @UCL_EI End🧵

https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1328371055891722241?s=20