With his corona coup, Orbán abandoned any pretense of being a democratic leader. Given that his electoral autocracy was already secure, why did he risk inflaming tensions with the EU by moving to outright dictatorship? My take in @monkeycageblog + a 🧵 👇washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
Many have claimed Orban just used coronavirus to kill Hungarian democracy. But that is not quite fair, since Orbán had already killed Hungarian democracy some time ago. Still, this week’s developments do mark a profound change - from sham democracy to blatant dictatorship
Given that his grip on power in Hungary already seemed secure, why did Orban risk rocking the boat & antagonizing the EU? To understand Orbán’s latest power grab, one must consider means, motive and opportunity.
With 2/3 majority in Parliament, a Constitutional Court packed with partisan loyalists, & tight control over all levers of government power, Orbán has long had the means to install himself as an outright dictator. The pandemic gave him both motive & opportunity to finally do so.
Motives: Orbán was worried that collapse of health care system & economy in crisis could damage his popularity so needed to silence any critics. Also, he sees opportunities to steal more money (). Finally, he wants to discredit EU as a union of democracies
Opportunity: He is assuming that EU leaders will be too distracted dealing with the pandemic to stand up to him. He has used this trick before - exploiting eurozone crisis, refugee crisis and Brexit. But the pandemic is the ultimate crisis, and he is using it to the fullest.
So, will Orbán's gamble pay off? Or will the EU finally stand up to him? @vonderleyen is an Orbán enabler, and her initial reaction to his autogolpe has been incredibly weak. Don't count on her to do anything but impede meaningful action:
The 13 member govs who issued a statement on abuse of emergency powers couldn't even bring themselves to mention Hungary or Orbán.
Likewise for the @EPPGroup (). @donaldtuskEPP's statement was a bit better () - but still not strong enough.
There is a movement afoot within the @EPP to expel Orbán. @KonservativeDK & @kokoomus (among others) have been leaders. Thanks to @WeissPernille @AuraSalla @alexstubb & others. Momentum is building
But the usual suspects in the EPP (European von Papen Party?) continue to protect Orbán: @CDU @CSU @lesRepublicains Forza Italia, GERB etc. @vonderleyen has turned out to be as much of an appeaser as @ManfredWeber was over the past decade. But there are encouraging signs
Merkel, the supposed paragon of liberal democracy, has never said a critical word about Orbán (politico.eu/article/angela… ). But Norbert Röttgen, a potential Merkel successor, is making it clear he finds Orbán's regime unacceptable:
Orbán seems confident that even if his move to dictatorship costs him EPP membership, the EU will keep the funds that sustain his regime flowing. He wants to establish the precedent for other aspiring autocrats that the EU will tolerate a dictatorship (theguardian.com/commentisfree/…)
In my recent article on the EU's "Authoritarian Equilibrium" I wrote, "While EU membership may not assure that member states remain democracies, it will likely prevent them from becoming full-blown dictatorships." I fear I was being too optimistic. END🧵 tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
