Paradox: Biden says he will shut down the virus, not the economy. The high US transmission means a short lockdown is necessary. Theory and experience in countries around the world tell us this is true. A few localities might be exempted.

A short lockdown with rapid green zone reopening is the fastest way to achieve economic recovery. Half-way measures don’t work. In order to have something different happen than under the Trump administration, and prevent further surge of the disease this is the way.

Contrast “Red Zone” with “Green Zone” strategy: In red zone strategy you impose restrictions based on transmission rate, mostly in red zones. In green zone strategy you start to suppress transmission everywhere, identify, create, open up green zones. It is the exit strategy.

Countries in Europe and US states adopted a “Red Zone strategy". Strong actions in COVID hotspots suppress transmission there. But in other locations transmission continues growing, they become red zones. It’s a whack-a-mole, that doesn’t work.

In “Green Zone strategy" Start with strong action everywhere for 4-6 weeks, identify where cases are and stop transmission. As cases go down, areas with fewer cases quickly get to zero community transmission and open up, protected by non-essential travel restrictions.

Then expand the green zones as other areas get to zero, and restore travel. The entire process takes just a few more weeks.

See the difference?

See what I mean? California is imposing half-way restrictions and only on the highest transmission areas.

Infection rates will continue to grow in most if not all of the state.

Things will continue to worsen. Not an exit strategy.…
No more green counties. Perhaps there are a few towns.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

21 Nov
In-flight transmission despite required masks, gloves and pre-flight testing. @nntaleb

A traveler tested negative for covid-19 before a flight. He had the virus and infected 4 passengers.…
"The study details an outbreak linked to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

The report details a coronavirus outbreak linked through DNA analysis to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

"The traveler, who tested negative for the coronavirus with a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 48 hours of the flight, was contagious but pre-symptomatic onboard the plane, and infected at least four other passengers.

Read 13 tweets
20 Nov
US reported 170,161 cases yesterday, second highest ever, with 4 states reporting new records. The daily toll was 1,848, the highest in half a year. Hospitalizations are at an all-time high, approaching 80k from 52k two weeks ago.
Turkey reports the highest daily cases and deaths that they’ve seen since April-May.
Japan reports a new high of 2,230 cases. Large surges observed in much of the country, especially Tokyo.
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
"Finland and Norway boast the West’s lowest rates of mortality, stand out as the closest Western equivalents to Asian nations that have managed to avoid the worst of the pandemic."

Their recipe:

@bopanc @eppe

"Their recipe: a brief, targeted lockdown in March, followed by tight border controls with mandatory testing and quarantine for all travelers.

"Finland and Norway follow a similar playbook of strict border controls, mandatory quarantines and detailed contact-tracing focused on preventing superspreading events when infections do occur.

Read 17 tweets
19 Nov
Coronavirus update:

Europe's daily cases continue to drop. In France, the number of critical cases began to plateau recently. We should expect a plateau and a subsequent drop in daily death tolls if this trend is to continue.
Serbia has not yet peaked in this wave. Yesterday, they reported 4,994 cases with 24 deaths, both are all-time highs.
Uruguay reported 104 new cases yesterday, marking the first time for the country to surpass 100. Recent growth is coupled with a rise in test positivity, though still relatively low, it is just over 2%, which is a new high.
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
"HALIFAX—This morning, my children went to school—in an old brick building, where they lined up to go in the scuffed front doors. I went to work out at the gym, the real gym, where I huffed and puffed in a sweaty group class
"And a few days ago, my partner and I hosted a dinner party, gathering eight friends around the dining room table for a boisterous night that went too late. Remember those?

"Where I’m living, we gather without fear. Life is unfolding much as it did a year ago. This magical, virus-free world is just one long day’s drive away from the Empire State Building — in a parallel dimension called Nova Scotia.

Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
Great! South Australia reacts fast to stop the new outbreak starting last few days and get back to normal.

(Note: Victoria is still COVID free and the strong lockdown in SA will protect other states as well)
"South Australia will go into a full lockdown for at least six days from midnight Wednesday night to nip the latest COVID-19 wave in its bud

As part of the toughest lockdown our nation has seen so far, schools, universities, cafes, pubs, takeaway shops and restaurants will close
Video on lockdown announcement in South Australia:

Fast action:

Read 4 tweets

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