In-flight transmission despite required masks, gloves and pre-flight testing. @nntaleb

A traveler tested negative for covid-19 before a flight. He had the virus and infected 4 passengers.…
"The study details an outbreak linked to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

The report details a coronavirus outbreak linked through DNA analysis to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

"The traveler, who tested negative for the coronavirus with a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 48 hours of the flight, was contagious but pre-symptomatic onboard the plane, and infected at least four other passengers.

“By combining information on disease progression, travel dynamics and genomic analysis, we conclude that at least four in-flight transmission events of SARS-CoV-2 likely took place,”

"New Zealand’s quarantine protocols make the study a unique analysis because all passengers were monitored and retested during their required 14-day quarantine managed by New Zealand authorities. Most flights have no way of monitoring passengers two weeks after their travel.

“This case speaks to how hard it is to keep infected people off a flight, even if you do PCR testing in a narrow window of time before the flight, The original case most likely became infectious after he took the preflight test, but was not symptomatic until..after the flight

"The evidence contradicts an October Department of Defense study that suggested a contagious person would need to sit next to a passenger for at least 54 hours to infect them, and declared coronavirus transmission risk on planes “low.”

It also raises questions about the efficacy of high-efficient air filtration on planes that airlines have credited as keeping passengers safe..

The aircraft, a Boeing 777, was the same kind used in the Department of Defense study.

“These seven cases were found to have been seated within four rows of each other during the approximately 18-hour flight,”

Of the seven infected individuals, five had tested negative within 48 hours before the flight.. “transmission events occurred despite reported use of masks and gloves in-flight,” and that stringent masking was required by the airline operating the flight.

"On Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended against Thanksgiving travel by air and train in the United States, where new coronavirus infections are rising to record levels.

👉The article misstates the false negative rate, which is about 30%. The confusion is in the problem of sampling. Samples are 30% negative, and the test is reporting on the RNA in the sample.…
"Cases A and B travelled together from Switzerland. Both cases reported negative test results in their country of origin at most 72 hours prior to boarding the flight. They departed Zurich, Switzerland and arrived in Dubai, UAE on 28 September 2020 at 08:02hrs."
Here is the testing and flight timeline

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More from @yaneerbaryam

20 Nov
Paradox: Biden says he will shut down the virus, not the economy. The high US transmission means a short lockdown is necessary. Theory and experience in countries around the world tell us this is true. A few localities might be exempted.

A short lockdown with rapid green zone reopening is the fastest way to achieve economic recovery. Half-way measures don’t work. In order to have something different happen than under the Trump administration, and prevent further surge of the disease this is the way.

Contrast “Red Zone” with “Green Zone” strategy: In red zone strategy you impose restrictions based on transmission rate, mostly in red zones. In green zone strategy you start to suppress transmission everywhere, identify, create, open up green zones. It is the exit strategy.

Read 10 tweets
20 Nov
US reported 170,161 cases yesterday, second highest ever, with 4 states reporting new records. The daily toll was 1,848, the highest in half a year. Hospitalizations are at an all-time high, approaching 80k from 52k two weeks ago.
Turkey reports the highest daily cases and deaths that they’ve seen since April-May.
Japan reports a new high of 2,230 cases. Large surges observed in much of the country, especially Tokyo.
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
"Finland and Norway boast the West’s lowest rates of mortality, stand out as the closest Western equivalents to Asian nations that have managed to avoid the worst of the pandemic."

Their recipe:

@bopanc @eppe

"Their recipe: a brief, targeted lockdown in March, followed by tight border controls with mandatory testing and quarantine for all travelers.

"Finland and Norway follow a similar playbook of strict border controls, mandatory quarantines and detailed contact-tracing focused on preventing superspreading events when infections do occur.

Read 17 tweets
19 Nov
Coronavirus update:

Europe's daily cases continue to drop. In France, the number of critical cases began to plateau recently. We should expect a plateau and a subsequent drop in daily death tolls if this trend is to continue.
Serbia has not yet peaked in this wave. Yesterday, they reported 4,994 cases with 24 deaths, both are all-time highs.
Uruguay reported 104 new cases yesterday, marking the first time for the country to surpass 100. Recent growth is coupled with a rise in test positivity, though still relatively low, it is just over 2%, which is a new high.
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
"HALIFAX—This morning, my children went to school—in an old brick building, where they lined up to go in the scuffed front doors. I went to work out at the gym, the real gym, where I huffed and puffed in a sweaty group class
"And a few days ago, my partner and I hosted a dinner party, gathering eight friends around the dining room table for a boisterous night that went too late. Remember those?

"Where I’m living, we gather without fear. Life is unfolding much as it did a year ago. This magical, virus-free world is just one long day’s drive away from the Empire State Building — in a parallel dimension called Nova Scotia.

Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
Great! South Australia reacts fast to stop the new outbreak starting last few days and get back to normal.

(Note: Victoria is still COVID free and the strong lockdown in SA will protect other states as well)
"South Australia will go into a full lockdown for at least six days from midnight Wednesday night to nip the latest COVID-19 wave in its bud

As part of the toughest lockdown our nation has seen so far, schools, universities, cafes, pubs, takeaway shops and restaurants will close
Video on lockdown announcement in South Australia:

Fast action:

Read 4 tweets

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