Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Nov 21 to Nov 27 -
#COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries with risk maps
Data: @ECDC_EU or coronavirus.jhu.edu or ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Ireland is slowing in landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.96), plateauing at medium level, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown from Oct 21, for 6 weeks.

3/21. The Netherlands is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.90), still at high level of activity, with high levels of mortality.
Partial lockdown from Nov 03 up to 2 weeks.

4/21. Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.78), decreasing but still at high levels of activity, with remaining increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1329799056516911113?s=20

Partial lockdown in Cantons, from Oct 28.

5/21. France is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.72), could be < 6,500 cases/day by next week-end, however with still increasing alarming levels of mortality, foreseen for the 7 upcoming days
Lockdown from Oct 29,for 1 month.

6/21. The UK seems has succeeded to cut the exponential phase of its #COVID19 2nd wave (R-eff=1.0), plateauing at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown -ended in Wales, after 2 wks- in England from Nov 05 for 1 month.

7/21. Germany seems very close to succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 2nd wave (R-eff=1.01), plateauing at high levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Soft lockdown from Nov 02 for one month.

8/21. Austria seems very close to succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 2nd wave (R-eff=1.02), plateauing at high levels, with alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Strict lockdown+school closure.

9/21. Italy seems close to succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 2nd wave (R-eff=1.04), plateauing at high levels, with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown in Lombardy, Piedmont/Valle d’Aosta, Calabria from Nov 05 for 2 wks

10/21. Denmark seems loosing control on its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.1), rising at high levels, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Partial lockdown measures in 7 municipalities amid mink covid fears.

11/21. Morocco seems close to succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic wave (R-eff=1.04), plateauing at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

12/21. Kenya will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

13/21. Israel facing seasonal pressure from the virus (R-eff=1.15), leaving its #COVID19 safety zone, foreseen to reach high levels of activity by mid-next week, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. Ukraine is not yet controlling its #COVID19 epidemic wave (R-eff=1.1), and will be still rising at high level, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

15/21. Japan, although facing seasonal pressure from the virus (R-eff=1.24), is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (< 2,500 new cases/day), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Insights on

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1328471487003680770?s=20

incl. its backward tracing strategy.

16/21. South Korea, although facing strong seasonal pressure from the virus (R-eff=1.29), is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (with<400 cases/day), and very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

17/21. Canada will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels (R-eff=1.09), for 7 more days.
Forecast for provinces are available, see the thread:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1327550156238098432?s=20

Increasing high level of mortality.

18/21. The USA will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high level (R-eff=1.14), with increasing high to very high (early next week) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
More details and risk map on:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1327544897205923840?s=20

Detailed analyses for 7 states.

19/21. Brazil will experience a surge (R-eff=1.21) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high level, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

20/21. Argentina will be plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.96), with decreasing very high to high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia and New Zealand have successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 epidemic wave. They will remain both within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.

22/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0